Typically, the two most important factors influencing
the long-term success of an organization are the
quantity and quality of
This is particularly true for a country. Yet there has
been barely any discussion in the U.S. prestige press on
the implications of the
demographic change imposed by immigration. We`re
constantly lectured by the
New York Times on the long-run impact of
carbon emissions and by the
Wall Street Journal
difficulties posed for Social Security by the
changing ratio of workers to retirees over the next
several decades. But the basic factor driving these
why there is a VDARE.com.
forecasting the U.S. population, the wild card is always
the Hispanic component.
For example, on
January 13, 2000, the U.S. Census Bureau released
population projections stating that the number of
Hispanics resident in the country would grow massively,
from 32 million in 2000 to 98 million in 2050.
When the Bureau conducted the decennial census on April
1, 2000, however, it found out that there were
already over 35 million Hispanics within the
borders—ten percent more than the government had
in late 2001, the Census Bureau released "interim"
projections incorporating the 2000 Census findings and
projected that the number of Hispanics would hit
103 million in 2050.
Now, the Bureau has released its first full-blown set of
projections in 8.5 years,. And they`re a doozy. The key
133 million Hispanics by 2050, an increase of
almost 100 million in half a century.
adding 100 million Latinos to the U.S. population a good
idea? Will it "form a more perfect Union, establish
domestic Tranquility, provide for the common
defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the
ourselves and our
(That`s the first sentence of something called the
once-celebrated document put together way back when
by a bunch of long-dead white guys, some of whom were
the people are supposed to have a say in such things.
But how can we have a say when we`re not supposed to
talk about it?
The well-worn responses of Establishment figures to
public unease about adding 100 million Hispanics usually
start with the words "All we have to do is …"
we have to do
create more good jobs.
reality, we don`t know how to solve any of these
problems. And we are unlikely to discover and implement
workable solutions any time soon. I`ve been following
social science and public policy for
36 years now. I`ve learned that fixes for
social problems are rare.
recent decades, we did finally make some progress
against crime. But we did it through the brute force
method of throwing a couple of million people in
And there has been little change in the
racial disparities in crime rates. Racial and ethnic
differences of all kinds have been strikingly
stable since the 1970s. In particular, the word that
best sums up
Latino America is
inertia. Things just sort of keep on keeping on in
the general direction that they were already moving.
What we do know is that all of these troubles are
exacerbated by the mass immigration of people with low
And alleviating some of that immigration-caused pressure
is something we actually do have a rough idea of
how to carry out.
One reason is that there are huge constituencies out
there who make their livings out of social problems.
They won`t make the problems go away, of course, because
that would make their jobs go away too. Instead, more
immigration by more people lacking in human capital is
full employment plan.
Yet the quantity and quality of the American population
does matter in the long run. It`s not even that hard to
do the calculations of the opportunity cost.
Consider high school dropout rates. In 2007, Nobel
James Heckman calculated [PDF]that
the high school dropout rate in the U.S. had bottomed
out at around 20 percent in 1969, but rose to about 25
percent by 2000. Over that period, there was no change
in the dropout rate`s racial ratio: blacks and Hispanics
raised in the U.S. were twice as likely as whites to
drop out (and Hispanic youths raised in Mexico were much
estimated that the majority of that increase was
directly due to simple demographic change—high
dropout-rate ethnic groups just made up a larger
fraction of all 18-year-olds in 2000 than in 1969.
The rest of the worsening may have been an indirect
product of demographic change as well. More non-Asian
stressed schools and more
anti-education attitudes in the classroom swamping
traditional American values even for the kids of
Simple math suggests that, all else being equal, the
ethnic change projected by the Census Bureau is likely
to raise the dropout rate from 25 percent to close to 30
do we want that?
Similarly, the change in ethnic makeup of 15-44 year
olds will, just by itself, raise the illegitimacy rate
by 4 points.
You can do similar calculations for rates of crime, lack
of health insurance, unaffordable housing, and other
social distresses. Most problems are inevitably made
worse by the immigration-driven shift in America`s
demographic balance—they have what
Peter Brimelow in
Alien Nation back in 1995 called "an
Similarly, the burden imposed by affirmative action on
individual whites will rapidly increase as the
racial ratio of minority quota beneficiaries to
majority benefactors shifts. And, note carefully, the
Census Bureau forecasts that minorities are forecast to
be a majority in the U.S. by 2042, only 34 years from
Overall, at the very least, we`ll have to get used to
being a country of lower average levels of achievement.
For whatever reasons, Mexican culture and
human accomplishment don`t go together.
For example, Hispanics today make up 23.4 percent of all
Americans between 15 and 44, yet they only account for
four percent of the U.S. Olympic team in Beijing.
(Heck, only two of the 23 players on the 2006 U.S. World
soccer team had Spanish surnames.)
The Latino Olympic shortfall is particularly notable
because Californians are
three times more likely to make the Olympic team
than non-Californians. The
Golden State has always been fitness and outdoors
mad. And the California culture encourages obsessions
eccentric minor sports, which is why Los Angeles was
such a successful host for the
1984 Olympics. And yet, over the last century, the
now-13 million Hispanics in California have not
assimilated much of the state`s local culture.
Dara Torres, the swimmer from Southern California
who won three silver medals at a Barry Bonds-like age
41, turns out not to be as Hispanic as her surname
implies—her father is Sephardic and she grew up in
Moreover, if current policy continues, we`ll be a poorer
more unequal citizenry than we would have to be
without so much immigration from south of the border.
Pew Hispanic Center reported in 2004:
"According to the study, the median net worth of
Hispanic households in 2002 was $7,932. This was only
nine percent of $88,651, the median wealth of
non-Hispanic White households at the same time. …
Twenty-six percent of Hispanic, 32 percent of
non-Hispanic Black and 13 percent of non-Hispanic White
households had zero or negative net worth in 2002. These
proportions are essentially unchanged since 1996. …
wealthiest 25 percent of Hispanic and non-Hispanic Black
households own 93 percent of the total wealth of each
group. Among non-Hispanic White households, the top 25
percent own 79 percent of total wealth."
And, in 2050, the future will look even more depressing.
Census Bureau says:
2050, the nation`s population of children is expected to
be 62 percent minority, up from 44 percent today.
Thirty-nine percent are projected to be Hispanic (up
from 22 percent in 2008), and 38 percent are projected
to be single-race, non-Hispanic white (down from 56
percent in 2008)."
And then there are the problems exacerbated just by
absolute changes in the quantity of residents of the
country. A completely obvious trap is the one that
liberals these days claim to be most concerned about:
America`s carbon footprint. Clearly, importing tens of
millions of poor Mexicans boosts this country`s—and the
world`s—output of greenhouse gases because they`ll burn
more fossil fuels living in America than in Mexico.
Indeed, the possibility of affording a
personal car is often the motivation for
But what`s relevant for global warming is not just the
difference in fuel consumption per person caused by
immigration. Illegal aliens also have
more children living in America than they would have
if they had to stay home in Mexico.
According to the
Public Policy Institute of California, immigrant
Latinas in California in 2005 were having babies at the
3.7 per lifetime, compared to only 2.4 for
Mexican women back home in Mexico.
Unmistakable conclusion: Mexicans are
sneaking into America to have more children than
could afford to have in their own country.
You are almost never told that.
When you look under the hood of the Census Bureau
projections, it`s apparent that the Hispanic population
could turn out to be quite a bit bigger than 133
million by 2050. The Bureau assumes that the Hispanic
total fertility rate (TFR) will decline from 2.70 in
2010 to 2.29 by 2050. In the real world, however, the
trend has been going in the opposite direction: 1996,
Latino women were
having babies at a rate equivalent to 2.77 per
lifetime. By 2006, the last year for which we have data,
Latinos were up to
the other hand, there is a bit of good news in these new
old projections badly underestimated the current
level of immigration. Thus, the 2000 forecasters
presumed that net immigration from the whole world would
top out at 1.1 million per year in 2050.
contrast, the 2008 projections assume that net
international migration will accelerate from 1.3 million
in 2010 to over 2.0 million in 2050.
But of course, the level of immigration is
not an act of God. It`s a political decision—one
that United States citizens have the right to change.
And they certainly would—if they were allowed to talk
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