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Romney's Unreported Share Of The White Vote
Near the end of the show. He's going through the different possibilities using the NY Times calculator. What if Romney got the high water mark -- he would have lost. What if he had made history and attracted 50% - he still would have lost. What if he had done something truly astonishing for a Republican, win 60% - he would have lost. So let's give Romney the Obama percentage, 70%, surely he would have won. No he would have lost. He would have won the popular vote but lost in the electoral college.
"This tells me that the Hispanic vote is not the problem, and I've never thought it was the problem."
If the whites had shown up in 2012 as they did in 2008, Romney would have won. The difference was that a lot of white voters stayed home.
"They (non-voting whites) didn't think the Republican Party was conservative enough.... The Republican Party was going after everybody but them."
- Byron York: Winning Hispanic vote would not be enough for GOP, Washington Examiner, May 2, 2013.
- WASHINGTON EXAMINER's Byron York Endorses VDARE.com's Sailer Strategy (Finally) by Peter Brimelow
- GOP Future Depends on Winning Larger Share of the White Vote by Steve Sailer, November 28, 2000
- How Immigration Reform and Demographics Could Change Presidential Math, By Nate Silver, April 30, 2013
Time elapsed between November 28, 2000 to May 2, 2013: 12 years, 5 months, 4 days. Advantage: VDARE.com!
Disadvantage (obviously) the Republican Party, which
Only one metric really matters in the close 2012 Presidential race: according to CNN's exit polling (scroll down), Mitt Romey's share of the white a.k.a. American vote was just 59%, for a twenty-point lead over Obama among whites. That's at the high end of the mediocre post-Reagan range, and four points above the hapless John McCain in 2008, but just not enough—as VDARE.com repeatedly remarked during the campaign as we prised white share data out of relectant MSM polls. (Counting is not complete as I write this, and the Pacific Coast results may reduce Romney's white share and some other details).
The Election Day tracking polls still show a statistical dead heat and Romney's white share at 56%-59%, at the high end of the mediocre post-Reagan range. Remember, George W. Bush won with 58% of white votes in 2004; John McCain lost with 55% in 2008. (More comparisons here). But as immigration (which both supported) is slowly tipping the electorate, this may no longer be enough.
There’s no breakthrough for Mitt Romney or Barack Obama in the most recent opinion polls. All show statistical dead heats, although Romney does now have a couple of single-point leads. And all show Romney’s white share below the 60% achieved by the Congressional Republicans in 2010. (More white share comparisons here—scroll down).
Ominously, the Congressional Republicans white share is polling five points lower in this contest.
The latest tracking polls show the Presidential race an actual or statistical deal heat. Of course, this is all within the margin of error—the final result could be literally anything.
The polls continue within the margin of error, with a slight advantage to Obama, but all agree that Romney's share of the white vote has sunk decisively, and perhaps fatally, below the 60% achieved by the Congressional GOP in 2010. (More white share comparisons here—scroll down).
Both the tracking polls and VDARE.com have been hit by Hurricane Sandy, but it appears that the post-debate Romney Ripple has now vanished and (not coincidentally) Romney's white share is declining back into the mediocre post-Reagan range—fatally below the 60% acheived by Congressional GOP candidates in 2010. (More white share comparisons here—scroll down).
Owing to Hurricane Sandy, RealClearPolitics polls have not been updated since the 28th.
October 30—Romney's White Share Still At 58 Percent, So Even If Whites Are More Likely To Show Up At The Polling Place, He's Still In Trouble
Hurricane Sandy is interfering with polling—Rasmussen Reports notes that
Rasmussen Reports is based in Asbury Park, New Jersey and we were hit hard by Hurricane Sandy. We are operating on battery power and have limited access to the Internet. However, our survey interview calls are placed from a different location, so data gathering was able to continue. Today, we will release only data from the Presidential Tracking Poll.
Peter Brimelow is unable to do the white share update today because electrical outages caused by Hurricane Sandy.