Romney's Unreported Share Of The White Vote

Michael Kinsley Thinks Race "Played Virtually No Role In The 2012 Campaign"

Ann Althouse quotes Michael Kinsley:

John Derbyshire: A White Flight From Christianity?

My video clip of the week, perhaps the year, is this one of Vincent Stewart, a/k/a/ Reverend X, preaching God’s Word.  The whole thing is 13 minutes, but here’s a flavor:

Limbaugh, Instapundit Discussing Byron York's Version Of The Sailer Strategy

A reader reports that Rush Limbaugh was discussing Byron York's version of the Sailer Strategy:

Near the end of the show. He's going through the different possibilities using the NY Times calculator. What if Romney got the high water mark -- he would have lost. What if he had made history and attracted 50% - he still would have lost. What if he had done something truly astonishing for a Republican, win 60% - he would have lost. So let's give Romney the Obama percentage, 70%, surely he would have won. No he would have lost. He would have won the popular vote but lost in the electoral college.

"This tells me that the Hispanic vote is not the problem, and I've never thought it was the problem."

If the whites had shown up in 2012 as they did in 2008, Romney would have won. The difference was that a lot of white voters stayed home.

"They (non-voting whites) didn't think the Republican Party was conservative enough.... The Republican Party was going after everybody but them."

Time elapsed between November 28, 2000 to May 2, 2013: 12 years, 5 months, 4 days. Advantage:!

Disadvantage (obviously) the Republican Party, which

Romney's White Share Fell Short Of 2010, So He Lost

Only one metric really matters in the close 2012 Presidential race: according to CNN's exit polling (scroll down), Mitt Romey's share of the white a.k.a. American vote was just 59%, for a twenty-point lead over Obama among whites. That's at the high end of the mediocre post-Reagan range, and four points above the hapless John McCain in 2008, but just not enough—as repeatedly remarked during the campaign as we prised white share data out of relectant MSM polls. (Counting is not complete as I write this, and the Pacific Coast results may reduce Romney's white share and some other details).

In comparison, the Congressional GOP got a 60% white share in 2010. Ronald Reagan got a 64% white share in 1984. George W. Bush won, narrowly, with a 58% white share in 2004, but

Nov 6 Election Day!—Still Statistical Dead Heat, One 59% White Share Sighting

The Election Day tracking polls still show a statistical dead heat and Romney's white share at 56%-59%, at the high end of the mediocre post-Reagan range. Remember, George W. Bush won with 58% of white votes in 2004; John McCain lost with 55% in 2008. (More comparisons here). But as immigration (which both supported) is slowly tipping the electorate, this may no longer be enough.

Nov. 5: Still Deadlocked—Romney's White Share Still Below 2010's 60%

There’s no breakthrough for Mitt Romney or Barack Obama in the most recent opinion polls. All show statistical dead heats, although Romney does now have a couple of single-point leads. And all show Romney’s white share below the 60% achieved by the Congressional Republicans in 2010. (More white share comparisons here—scroll down).

Ominously, the Congressional Republicans white share is polling five points lower in this contest.

Nov. 4: Race Still Deadlocked—Romney's White Share About Bush's 2004 58%, May No Longer Be Enough

The latest tracking polls show the Presidential race an actual or statistical deal heat. Of course, this is all within the margin of error—the final result could be literally anything.

Nov. 3: Race Deadlocked—Romney's White Share Stuck Well Below 2010's 60%

The polls continue within the margin of error, with a slight advantage to Obama, but all agree that Romney's share of the white vote has sunk decisively, and perhaps fatally, below the 60% achieved by the Congressional GOP in 2010. (More white share comparisons here—scroll down).

Nov. 2: Polls Say Romney Ripple Gone—White Share Back To Mediocre Post-Reagan Range

Both the tracking polls and have been hit by Hurricane Sandy, but it appears that the post-debate Romney Ripple has now vanished and (not coincidentally) Romney's white share is declining back into the mediocre post-Reagan range—fatally below the 60% acheived by Congressional GOP candidates in 2010. (More white share comparisons here—scroll down).

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