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March 08, 2004
Immigrants Are Avoiding the Golden State—Not!
The
Establishment Media has an insatiable appetite for
good news about
immigration. Witness this latest spin job:
“California is attracting a smaller share of new
immigrants for the first time in 30 years, a dramatic
turnaround that could improve the state’s economic
fortunes and create ripples across the nation.” (Haya
El Nasser,
“New Immigrants Skip Calif.: State’s Share of Recent
Arrivals to USA Shrinks,” USA Today, February
18, 2004)
Oh yeah? The
alleged evidence of California’s decline as an immigrant
destination:
“California’s Immigrants Turn the Corner,” a
report released earlier this year by the University of
Southern California. The USC researchers claimed that
after growing steadily in the Censuses of 1970, 1980,
and 1990, the share of U.S. immigrants coming to
California “turned sharply downward in 2000.”
If true,
this would of course bode well for the welfare of state
residents—immigrant
and
native alike.
Unfortunately, the USC researchers have misinterpreted
the data. In particular, they overlook the distortions
caused by the
amnesty granted to illegal aliens under the 1986
Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA). Since
California is home to an inordinate number of illegals,
the state’s 1990 immigrant count was artificially
inflated with newly legalized immigrants—foreign-born
who had lived in the state
illegally for years. The amnesty-based distortion
shows up as a quantum leap in new immigrants in 1990:
[See table
for further details.]
 | Immigration to California jumped to 682,979 in 1990
from 188,696 in 1988—a 262% increase |
| Nationally, immigration rose to 1,536,483 in 1990 from
643,025 in 1988, a 139% increase |
Within a few
years the illegals were all made legal, and the
amnesty-driven immigration bubble burst - nowhere more
dramatically than in California:
| Immigration to California officially collapsed to
336,663 in 1992, down 50.7% from 1990 |
| Nationally, immigration fell to 973,977 in 1992, down
36.6% from 1990 |
Remember:
These numbers do not reflect the actual movement of
people
across U.S. borders in these years. Instead, the
numbers merely reflect a technical change in the legal
status of millions of erstwhile illegal aliens. The
“historic” decline in the share of new immigrants coming
to California between 1990 and 2000 is thus a factoid
with no practical significance.
A more
meaningful picture of mass immigration’s current impact
can be seen in the post-amnesty trend of annual
arrivals. Look, for example, at the trend for the top
five immigrant destination states. From 1995 to 2002:
| California’s share of U.S. immigrant arrivals rose
from 23.5% to 27.5% |
| New York
State’s share fell from 18.1% to 10.9% |
| Florida’s
share fell from 8.7% to 8.6% |
| Texas’
share rose from 7.0% to 8.4% |
| New
Jersey’ s share fell from 5.6% to 5.5% |
Far from
shrinking in importance, immigration is responsible for
virtually all of California’s population growth. A
study by demographer Leon Bouvier attributes 57% of
California’s population growth in the 1990s to direct
immigration, and the rest to
births to foreign-born women.
California’s
native-born population actually
declined in absolute numbers, the result of low
fertility rates and massive
net emigration to
other states.
Bottom line:
California’s population growth, and its attendant
environmental, social, and
fiscal traumas, is entirely driven by immigration.
That reality
cannot be changed by either wishful thinking or bad
research.
[Number fans click here
for tables.]
Edwin S. Rubenstein (email
him) is President of
ESR Research
Economic Consultants in Indianapolis. |
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