May 24, 2007

National Data, By Edwin S. Rubenstein

The Next Big Headline: Most Births Minority in 2011.

Table 1:

White and Minority Population, 2005 to 2050
	Total	White only, non-Hispanic	Minority	% Minority
2005	296,507,061	198,235,448	98,271,613	33.1%
2006	299,398,484	198,744,494	100,653,990	33.6%
% change, 2005-06:	0.98%	0.26%	2.42%
	Projections:
2007	302,351,046	199,261,230	103,089,817	34.1%
2008	305,363,899	199,779,309	105,584,590	34.6%
2009	308,438,472	200,298,735	108,139,737	35.1%
2010	311,576,231	200,819,512	110,756,719	35.5%
2011	314,778,674	201,341,643	113,437,031	36.0%
2012	318,047,338	201,865,131	116,182,208	36.5%
2013	321,383,797	202,389,980	118,993,817	37.0%
2014	324,789,661	202,916,194	121,873,467	37.5%
2015	328,266,581	203,443,776	124,822,805	38.0%
2016	331,816,247	203,972,730	127,843,517	38.5%
2017	335,440,389	204,503,059	130,937,330	39.0%
2018	339,140,781	205,034,767	134,106,014	39.5%
2019	342,919,237	205,567,857	137,351,379	40.1%
2020	346,777,616	206,102,334	140,675,283	40.6%
2021	350,717,824	206,638,200	144,079,624	41.1%
2022	354,741,811	207,175,459	147,566,351	41.6%
2023	358,851,573	207,714,115	151,137,457	42.1%
2024	363,049,156	208,254,172	154,794,984	42.6%
2025	367,336,655	208,795,633	158,541,022	43.2%
2026	371,716,217	209,338,502	162,377,715	43.7%
2027	376,190,037	209,882,782	166,307,256	44.2%
2028	380,760,368	210,428,477	170,331,891	44.7%
2029	385,429,514	210,975,591	174,453,923	45.3%
2030	390,199,835	211,524,128	178,675,708	45.8%
2031	395,073,750	212,074,090	182,999,660	46.3%
2032	400,053,735	212,625,483	187,428,252	46.9%
2033	405,142,325	213,178,309	191,964,015	47.4%
2034	410,342,117	213,732,573	196,609,545	47.9%
2035	415,655,773	214,288,277	201,367,496	48.4%
2036	421,086,016	214,845,427	206,240,589	49.0%
2037	426,635,636	215,404,025	211,231,611	49.5%
2038	432,307,492	215,964,076	216,343,416	50.0%
2039	438,104,509	216,525,582	221,578,927	50.6%
2040	444,029,686	217,088,549	226,941,137	51.1%
2041	450,086,091	217,652,979	232,433,112	51.6%
2042	456,276,870	218,218,877	238,057,994	52.2%
2043	462,605,243	218,786,246	243,818,997	52.7%
2044	469,074,507	219,355,090	249,719,417	53.2%
2045	475,688,040	219,925,413	255,762,627	53.8%
2046	482,449,302	220,497,219	261,952,082	54.3%
2047	489,361,835	221,070,512	268,291,323	54.8%
2048	496,429,268	221,645,295	274,783,973	55.4%
2049	503,655,318	222,221,573	281,433,745	55.9%
2050	511,043,791	222,799,349	288,244,442	56.4%
Note: Projections derived by extrapolating white and minority 2005-06 population growth rates.
Source: 2006: National Population Estimates - Characteristics-2006 National Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin
2005: National Population Estimates - Characteristics-2005 National Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin

Table 2:

White and Minority Births, 2005 to 2021
	Total Births	White,non-Hispanic Births	Minority Births	% Minority Births
2005	4,128,621	2,272,697	1,855,924	45.0%
2006	4,151,889	2,244,286	1,907,603	45.9%
% increase, 2005-2006	0.56%	-1.25%	2.78%
	Projections:
2007	4,176,867	2,216,232	1,960,634	46.9%
2008	4,203,670	2,188,530	2,015,140	47.9%
2009	4,232,334	2,161,173	2,071,161	48.9%
2010	4,262,897	2,134,158	2,128,739	49.9%
2011	4,295,399	2,107,481	2,187,918	50.9%
2012	4,329,880	2,081,138	2,248,742	51.9%
2013	4,366,381	2,055,124	2,311,257	52.9%
2014	4,404,945	2,029,434	2,375,510	53.9%
2015	4,445,616	2,004,067	2,441,549	54.9%
2016	4,488,440	1,979,016	2,509,424	55.9%
2017	4,533,465	1,954,278	2,579,186	56.9%
2018	4,580,737	1,929,850	2,650,888	57.9%
2019	4,630,309	1,905,726	2,724,583	58.8%
2020	4,682,231	1,881,905	2,800,326	59.8%
2021	4,736,556	1,858,381	2,878,175	60.8%
Note: Figures show births from July 1st of the previous year to July 1st of the year shown.
Sources: 2006: National Population Estimates - Characteristics-2006 National Components of Change
2005: National Population Estimates - Characteristics-2005 National Components of Change

Edwin S. Rubenstein (email him) is President of ESR Research Economic Consultants in Indianapolis.

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