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November 28, 2005
Bush Amnesty May Be
Much Bigger Than Advertised
President Bush has returned to his
illegal alien amnesty proposal—again. But how many
illegals are we talking about?
The
2000 Census said 8.7 million. The Pew Hispanic
Center, analyzing data from the Census Bureau’s March
2004 population survey, bumped the total up to 10.3
million, adding that it was increasing by about 485,000
persons each year. Homeland Security has put the figure
as high as 12 million. [Ridge
rapped for immigration views, By Jerry Seper,
Washington Times, December 11, 2003.]
Fact#1: No
one knows how many
illegal aliens are living in the U.S.
Fact #2:
Anecdotal evidence suggests the
official estimates are way too low
Illegal aliens are (surprise!
surprise!) loath to fill out the questionnaires on which
the
Census Bureau bases its population figures. For
Census and groups that use its figures, such as the
cottage industry of illegal alien estimators at work
inside the Beltway, undercounts are inevitable. Which is
why the Census Bureau estimate has been repeatedly
revised upward.
Measuring the size of the illegal
alien population is more art than science, given the
flaws in the official statistics. But compelling
anecdotal evidence suggests the illegal alien population
is far higher than most think. For example:
 | Remittances to Mexico doubled
between
2000 and 2003, yet the official tally of
immigrants from Central America (including Mexico)
grew
26 percent and their real wages were
falling. |
| Housing permits in gateway
cities are rising far faster than the population; in
northern New Jersey, for example, cities with a
combined 5.6 percent population growth, report a
6-fold rise in permits. |
| Payroll versus Household job
growth: Household employment surveys show far more
robust job growth than the official job statistics,
which are based on a survey of employers. Hispanics
dominate job growth in the household survey. We make
this point in our
monthly analysis of employment trends. |
Another approach ignores Census
data completely, focusing instead on the movement of
illegals in and out of the country. This methodology
builds on several pieces of information and assumptions:
| Apprehension rate—for every
illegal caught
crossing the border an estimated 3 to 6 escape
detection |
| Repeat offenders—many illegals
who are caught and returned home try to
re-enter and are caught again. They must be
deducted to avoid double-counts. |
| Short-term stays and
legalizations—165,000 illegals a year
return home voluntarily after residing here for
at least a year; the same number get
some sort of legal status, about 50,000 are
deported, and 25,000 die. They also must be deducted
in estimating the annual net increase in illegal
aliens. |
Researcher
Fred Elbel has connected all of the links in this
chain. Using conservative assumptions at each
juncture—i.e., one in four illegals apprehended,
one-third of the others returning home or becoming
legalized—Elbel
concludes that the illegal alien population is
increasing by an average of at least 2.2 million persons
annually.
Let’s err on the side of caution,
and cut this figure in half—to 1.1 million. At that rate
about 21 million illegals would have been added since
the
1986 amnesty made
everyone legal. This happens to be about what
D.A. King estimated with a back-of-the envelope
calculation last summer.
With the
Bush Amnesty, America is being asked to buy a pig in
a poke—and it’s a bigger pig than Washington is letting
on.
Edwin S. Rubenstein (email
him) is President of
ESR Research Economic Consultants in Indianapolis. |
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