Latest polls show Romney clinging to a nominal overall lead still well within the margin of error, with little sign still that he will reach the 60% white share achieved by the Congressional GOP in 2010. Ohio provides a case study of his failure to appeal to working class whites.
- The Oct, 14 Rasmussen Reports Presidential Poll shows Romney now two points ahead overall, 49-47.
Rasmussen`s Premium Platinum subscribers learn that Romney`s white share has inched up and now stands at 58%, back to about his highest white share level in this campaign so far. (It`s still pathetic). Romney`s support from blacks and “others” has fallen, to 5% and 37% respectively, so his widened lead is entirely due to whites.
- IBD/TIPP (Oct. 14) shows Romney trailing Obama 46-46.7, which the poll describes as a “dead heat.”
IBD/TIPP shows Romney`s white share at 56%
- Gallup shows Romney ahead 49-47.
Gallup, a liberal poll, does not deign to release its racial breakdowns.
The Presidential race continues within the margin of error, essentially because Romney is still stuck in the mediocre Bush-McCain white share range. Remember that the Congressional Republicans got 60% of the white vote in 2010. (More white share comparisons here—scroll down).
A case study: both Rasmussen (here) and Public Policy Polling (here) have recently published polls showing Romney trailing Obama in the key state of Ohio, 47-48 and 46-51 respectively. But Rasmussen`s Platinum service shows Romney`s white share in Ohio at just 52%; PPP at merely 50%. The services respectively report that the Ohio electorate is 83% and 84% white .