Three national polls reported Mitt Romney ahead of President Barack Obama today, two by statistically significant margins. But Romney still shows little sign of reaching the 60% share of the white vote achieved by the Congressional Republicans in 2010. (More white share comparisons here—scroll down). He still seems stuck at the high end of the post-Reagan GOP contenders` very mediocre range. It`s a real question if that will be enough.
State polls reveal Romney`s problem—and the Democrats`. Romney is failing abysmally among northern whites. But even a small shift would swamp the Democrats there for a generation.
- Rasmussen Reports (Oct. 23), shows Romney ahead 50-46. That`s two points more than yesterday.
Rasmussen`s Premium Platinum subscribers learn that Romney`s white share is still 57%, an eighteen-point lead over Obama.
- Gallup (Oct. 23) shows Romney ahead of Obama, 51-46. That`s down another point since yesterday, but still well above the margin of error.
Gallup again did not publish its racial breakdown. But a week ago, on Oct. 16, it showed Romney getting a record 61% white share, which translated into a four-point national lead over Obama. Presumably, Gallup thinks Romney`s white share is still at least in that range.
- Washington Post/ ABC News (Oct 23) shows Romney ahead 49-48.
Incredibly, WaPo`s published data sheet does not provide racial breakdowns. However, an article on yesterday`s poll, when Obama led by a point (Post-ABC tracking poll: Obama 49 percent, Romney 48 percent, by Jon Cohen and Scott Clement, Oct. 22, 2012) let fall the apparently forbidden fact that Romney`s white share was just 56%, with a 15-point lead over Obama.
- IBD/TIPP has been the outlier, showing a statistically significant Obama lead. But today (Oct 23) the poll reported that Romney has gained and now trails Obama by only two points, 44.5%-46.5%.
IBD/TIPP shows Romney`s white share to be unchanged at a mediocre 53%, for a fifteen-point lead over Obama.
Rasmussen Reports also released state polls showing Romney`s continuing and chronic problem among Northern whites.
In Connecticut, Romney trails Obama 45-51. As usual, Rasmussen`s Platinum subscribers can learn Romney`s white share: a disgraceful 50%, only 7 points ahead of Obama.
In Minnesota, Romney trails Obama 46-51. Romney`s white share: an absolutely appalling 48%, two points behind Obama. To VDARE.com`s knowledge, this is the first time Rasmussen has reported Romney losing any white vote anywhere.
But it`s important to note that even Romney is losing these overwhelmingly white states only quite narrowly. Just a small shift among their white white voters, for which there is certainly plenty of room, would destroy the Democrats.
Maybe that`s why discussing the white vote is forbidden.