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Oct. 23: Slight Shift To Romney Overall—White Share Stalled In Mid-50s; Fatally Worse In CT, MN
Three national polls reported Mitt Romney ahead of President Barack Obama today, two by statistically significant margins. But Romney still shows little sign of reaching the 60% share of the white vote achieved by the Congressional Republicans in 2010. (More white share comparisons here—scroll down). He still seems stuck at the high end of the post-Reagan GOP contenders' very mediocre range. It's a real question if that will be enough.
State polls reveal Romney's problem—and the Democrats'. Romney is failing abysmally among northern whites. But even a small shift would swamp the Democrats there for a generation.
- Rasmussen Reports (Oct. 23), shows Romney ahead 50-46. That's two points more than yesterday.
Rasmussen's Premium Platinum subscribers learn that Romney's white share is still 57%, an eighteen-point lead over Obama.
- Gallup (Oct. 23) shows Romney ahead of Obama, 51-46. That's down another point since yesterday, but still well above the margin of error.
Gallup again did not publish its racial breakdown. But a week ago, on Oct. 16, it showed Romney getting a record 61% white share, which translated into a four-point national lead over Obama. Presumably, Gallup thinks Romney's white share is still at least in that range.
- Washington Post/ ABC News (Oct 23) shows Romney ahead 49-48.
Incredibly, WaPo's published data sheet does not provide racial breakdowns. However, an article on yesterday's poll, when Obama led by a point (Post-ABC tracking poll: Obama 49 percent, Romney 48 percent, by Jon Cohen and Scott Clement, Oct. 22, 2012) let fall the apparently forbidden fact that Romney's white share was just 56%, with a 15-point lead over Obama.
- IBD/TIPP has been the outlier, showing a statistically significant Obama lead. But today (Oct 23) the poll reported that Romney has gained and now trails Obama by only two points, 44.5%-46.5%.
IBD/TIPP shows Romney's white share to be unchanged at a mediocre 53%, for a fifteen-point lead over Obama.
Rasmussen Reports also released state polls showing Romney's continuing and chronic problem among Northern whites.
In Connecticut, Romney trails Obama 45-51. As usual, Rasmussen's Platinum subscribers can learn Romney's white share: a disgraceful 50%, only 7 points ahead of Obama.
In Minnesota, Romney trails Obama 46-51. Romney's white share: an absolutely appalling 48%, two points behind Obama. To VDARE.com's knowledge, this is the first time Rasmussen has reported Romney losing any white vote anywhere.
But it's important to note that even Romney is losing these overwhelmingly white states only quite narrowly. Just a small shift among their white white voters, for which there is certainly plenty of room, would destroy the Democrats.
Maybe that's why discussing the white vote is forbidden.