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Oct. 22: No Breakthough Yet—Romney's White Share Still Just 57%, Overall Lead Still Within Margin Of Error.
On the eve of the campaign's last debate, Mitt Romney continues to get slightly better polls than Barack Obama, although mostly still within the margin of error. But, while it looked yesterday that white voters might be at last tipping to him decisively, today his white share appears to be still stuck at the top end of GOP Presidential candidates' mediocre post-Reagan white share range.
That might not be enough. Remember, John McCain lost with a 55% white share in 2008—but the Congressional GOP got 60% in 2010, which should have been Romney's starting point. (More white share comparisons here—scroll down).
- Gallup (Oct. 22) shows Romney ahead of Obama, 51-45. That's down a point since yesterday, but still well above the margin of error.
Irritatingly, Gallup again did not publish its racial breakdown. But on Oct. 16, it showed Romney getting a record 61% white share, which translated into a four-point national lead over Obama. Presumably, Gallup thinks Romney's white share is still at least in that range.
- Monmouth/ Survey/ USA/ Braun (Oct. 22) shows Romney ahead of Obama 48-45, with a margin of error of ± 2.6%. This is a continued improvement since Oct. 11, when Romney led by one point.
The crosstabs reveal Romney's white share: 57%, a nineteen-point lead over Obama.
- POLITICO/ GWU/ Battleground (Oct. 22) now shows Romney ahead of Obama, 49-47. Last week, Obama led by a point. All this is still within the margin of error.
As always with this poll, the racial breakdown is buried under a ton of extraneous detail. Romney's white share (p. 93): 57%, an eighteen-point lead over Obama.
Rasmussen's Premium Platinum subscribers learn that Romney's white share is down two points, to 57%, a nineteen-point lead over Obama.
- IBD/TIPP, the one outlier reporting a substantial Obama lead, reduced its estimate today (Oct 22) to show Romney trailing by just four points, 43.4%-47.4%.
IBD/TIPP's estimate of Romney's white share: a very mediocre 53%—up from an appalling 51% yesterday.
Romney's continuing problem with whites in the North is illustrated by two recent Rasmussen state polls: in Iowa (Oct 21), Romney and Obama are tied 48-48—and Romney's white share is a disgraceful 50%, only four points ahead of Obama.
In contrast, in Colorado (Oct. 22), Romney has drawn ahead to 50-46—and his white share is 59%, 22 points ahead of Obama.