The Boring Route To GOP Electoral College Triumph In 2016

A friend of mine who is a Democratic operative points out that Romney could have won in the Electoral College with various combinations of 3 of these 4 states: Florida (29 electoral votes), Pennsylvania (20), Ohio (18), and Michigan (16). Romney needed 64 more votes, so FL, PA, and OH would have worked or FL, PA, and MI (but FL, OH, MI would have come up 1 short).

He argues that the GOP would be best off adopting strategies aimed at Northern suburbs. I haven't been to Florida in 20 years, so I don't know what to make of this claim, but he says that, for all its exoticism, Florida also has much in common with Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan due to retirement patterns and the like. There are a lot of voters in Florida who are pretty much Northern suburbanites by background.

I'm writing my chapter on the Industrial States (many of which are your Big 10 states) and found out that your Big 10 idea can work.  Romney essentially lost the election in 3 or four states: Florida, Penn. Ohio or Michigan.  ...

What do all four states have in common?  Lots of suburbanites and/or retired blue collar workers.  Florida nows swings with the rest of Northern suburbia.  Tipping the Sunshine State to Romney would have given him 235 votes.  Adding Penn (20 votes & Michigan (16) would have given him 271, despite the loss in the national popular vote (due to huge Obama margins in New York, Chicago, LA and San Francisco).

Here's the stat that will have Republicans tearing their hair out: if Romney had just matched Jerry Ford's 1976 performance in the suburbs of Philly and Detroit, he would have carried those two key states and (assuming Florida also swung) won the Electoral College ala Bush in 2000. ...

Rove has talents; he is an expert on getting white Southern Democrats to defect.  But he never learned how to appeal to Northern suburbanites....and the GOP already has the South in their hip pocket, so Rove is no longer needed....But somehow I imagine Jeb will call him in 2016...