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Oct 24: "Romney Ripple" Ebbs—White Share Stuck In McCain Range, But One 59% Outlier
I'm more than ever convinced that this Hispanic Hype stuff is just deliberate, Republican-rattling disinformation—witness the interview President Barack Obama released today (Obama: If I Win, It Will Be Because GOP Alienated Latinos, by Jordan Fabian, ABC_Univision, Oct. 24 2012). In fact, of course, the Hispanic vote is barely a tenth of the white vote. If Obama wins, it will be because Romney has failed to match the 60% of the white vote achieved by the Congressional GOP in 2010. (More details here—scroll down).
Today, national tracking polls report that the Romney Surge—make that the "Romney Ripple"—is still discernable, but ebbing. And it increasingly looks like Romney is going to fail to reach that 60% white share, although one outlying poll has him at 59%.
- Gallup (Oct 24) shows Romney's lead further diminished from yesterday, to three points, 50-47. This is now back within the margin of error.
Once again, Gallup did not publish its racial breakdown. On Oct. 16, it showed Romney getting a record 61% white share, which at that time translated into a four-point national lead over Obama.
- Rasmussen Reports (Oct. 24), shows Romney still ahead of Obama 50-46, the same as yesterday. This is now Romney's one statistically-significant lead in national polls.
Rasmussen's Premium Platinum subscribers learn that Romney's white share is still 57%, which is currently a nineteen-point lead over Obama.
- Washington Post/ ABC News (Oct 24) shows Romney ahead 49-48, also unchanged since yesterday.
This is the third daily WaPo/ ABC tracking poll to be released, and it is now clear that there has been a deliberate WaPo editorial decision not to release racial breakdowns even in the detailed cross-tabs. (See here). We hope that reporters Jon Cohen and Scott Clement were not too severely disciplined for letting fall in their commentary on Sunday, when Romney trailed 48-49, the apparently forbidden fact that his white share was a mediocre 56%, for a 15-point lead over Obama.
In contrast, the ABC commentary on the same poll tonight (Romney Takes Lead on Economy; White Men are the Movers, by Gary Langer, Oct 24, 2012) did reveal Romney's white share (a high—for him—59%) and specifically credits white men, especially non-college educated men. The optimistic interpretation, for Romney, would be that WaPo/ABC is first to pick up an emerging trend. It could be especially useful to Romney in the close races in the Northern Rustbowl states. But there's little sign of it elsewhere.
And the fact that Romney's overall lead is so narrow although his white share is so (relatively) strong may speak to the Left's success in Electing A New People through immigration, as Ed Rubenstein and I projected in National Review some 15 (!) years ago.
- IBD/TIPP (Oct 24) has been the outlier among national polls, consistently showing Romney trailing Obama by a significant margin. That suddenly shrank to two points yesterday; today it's back up to three—Romney lags 44.3-47.3.
The IBD/TIPP commentary never mentions the white vote, but Romney's white share is reported in the crosstabs: a low (and remarkably stable) 53%, for a fourteen-point lead over Obama.
- Reuters/ Ipsos (Oct 24) shows Romney now ahead of Obama, 47-46. This is a reversal of Tuesday's result
Reuters/ Ipsos does not release racial breakdowns. I have been told that on Oct. 7, when Romney trailed 45-47, his share of white Registered Voters—as opposed to Likely Voters, which all polls now focus on—was a very low 50%.
Rasmussen Reports released state polls today, further illustrating Romney's chronic problem with whites outside the South.
In the key state of Ohio, Rasmussen now shows Romney tied with Obama, 48-48. On October 14, Romney was trailing 47-48. The gain is entirely due to whites: Rasmussen's Platinum Subscribers can see Romney's white share was 52%, it's now 56% (still weak).
In Nevada, Rasmussen now shows Romney trailing Obama 48-50. Romney's white share is just 58%, a 17-point lead over Obama. That's at the high end of the GOP's mediocre post-Reagan range, but in this immigration-impacted state it may not be enough.
For a telling example of how Romney is turning off his white base in Nevada, see here.