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Obama, The White Vote, And The Sailer Strategy
In 2001, Steve Sailer's "GOP Future Depends on White Vote" which, as Steve Sailer wrote later "demonstrated that if George W. Bush had merely won 57% instead of just 54% of the white vote, he would have earned an Electoral College landslide of 367 to 171" was banned by Free Republic as "divisive" and "promoting racism."
When, in 2009, Pat Buchanan wrote about " the alienation and radicalization of white America" and "white working-class voters" he was attacked by Media Matters.[Pat Buchanan's "white working-class voters" sound a lot like his David Duke voters, October 20, 2009]
By Ronald Brownstein
April 7, 2011
The latest Pew Research Center national poll released today underscores how slender a beachhead President Obama has established among whites more than two years into his presidency.
In his 2008 election, Obama ran well only among two groups of whites -- young people and white women with at least a four year college education, two groups that are generally receptive to government activism. In the 2010 GOP landslide, those groups stuck with Democrats relatively more loyally than the rest of the white electorate, but the party's support tumbled even among them.
Figures provided to National Journal by Pew from the new survey suggests that Obama has recaptured ground Democrats lost with well-educated white women in 2010-but that he is still struggling with every other segment of the white electorate, including younger voters.
These results underscore the basic dynamic looming over the 2012 presidential race. On the one hand, Obama will benefit from a wave of diversity that has increased the minority share of the population in every state since 2000, according to recently released results from the 2010 Census.
On the other, polls consistently suggest he may struggle to match the modest 43 percent support among whites that he drew in 2008, according to the Edison Research exit poll. In the 2010 mid-term election, according to the Edison exit poll, just 37 percent of whites backed Democrats in House races, while 60 percent supported Republicans-the highest share of the white vote Republicans have won in a House election in the history of modern polling. Obama's approval rating among all whites in the Pew survey stands at a similar 38 percent.[More]
This means that the Sailer Strategy-of appealing to the GOP's white base-is working, even though the Republicans are doing nothing to work it. It also means that Sailer's additional suggestion, rebranding the Democrats as the Black Party, is also working. Once again, the GOP isn't doing this-Eric Holder is.
Unfortunately, another factor is working against the Republicans-the "Swept Away" factor that Peter Brimelow and Ed Rubenstein wrote about in 1997. More minorities in America means fewer Republican votes. As Brimelow wrote after an earlier election, for Democrats like James Carville to gloat that
â€śDemographics donâ€™t do anything but get better for Democrats. Every election becomes less whiteâ€ť is to gloat because Americans are being overwhelmed by foreigners.
That is why immigration enthusiasm is ultimately treason.
So does this story mean that Republicans--and more important, Americans--will do well or badly in the next election? I don't know, but I count three "I told you so's" for VDARE.com!