Nov. 5: Still Deadlocked—Romney`s White Share Still Below 2010`s 60%

There’s no breakthrough for Mitt Romney or Barack Obama in the most recent opinion polls. All show statistical dead heats, although Romney does now have a couple of single-point leads. And all show Romney’s white share below the 60% achieved by the Congressional Republicans in 2010. (More white share comparisons here—scroll down).

Ominously, the Congressional Republicans white share is polling five points lower in this contest.

Pew’s white poll respondents favored Romney by 15 points:

RACE

Obama

Romney

White, non-Hispanic

39

54

Black, non-Hispanic

93

2

Hispanics

66

27

 

  • Today’s CNN Poll (Nov. 5) shows a tie between Romney and Obama, 49-49.

Romney white share:  57%, 17 points ahead of Obama. Oddly, non-white numbers are shown as N/A –not enough response.

  • Monmouth/ Survey USA / Braun (Nov. 5) shows Romney tied with Obama 48-48.

Monmouth shows Romney’s white share at a high (for him) 59%, for a twenty point lead over Obama.

  • Gallup (Nov. 5) has Romney ahead of Obama, 49-48. This is the first Gallup poll since Hurricane Sandy, when Romney had a five-point lead.

Gallup has not published a racial breakdown since Oct. 16, when it showed Romney getting a record 61% white share. That translated into a four-point national lead over Obama.

  • Rasmussen Reports (Nov. 5) has Romney back a point ahead Obama, 49-48.

Platinum Subscribers to Rasmussen can view the crosstabs, which show Romney and Obama both edging up another point among whites, so that Romney’s lead remains 18 points:

Candidate

White

Black

Other

Romney

58%

4%

46%

Obama

40%

93%

49%

Further indication of Romney (possibly fatal) weakness among Northern whites: in the much-touted swing state of Ohio, Rasmussen shows him back down to a tie with Obama 48-48. Romney’s white share in the state: a mediocre 56%, for a mere fifteen-point lead over Obama.

It’s rubbing off: Rasmussen also shows Republicans and Democrats tied in a generic Congressional ballot, 46-46.

The Republican white share: 55%—down five points since the 2010 Election.