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Nov. 3: Race Deadlocked—Romney's White Share Stuck Well Below 2010's 60%
The polls continue within the margin of error, with a slight advantage to Obama, but all agree that Romney's share of the white vote has sunk decisively, and perhaps fatally, below the 60% achieved by the Congressional GOP in 2010. (More white share comparisons here—scroll down).
- Rasmussen Reports this morning (Nov 3) shows Romney is still tied with Obama, 48-48
Rasmussen Report's Premium Platinum subscribers learn that Romney's white share still stuck at 57%, for an eighteen-point lead over Obama.
- ABC/ Washington Post last night (Nov. 2) showed Romney edging back ahead of Obama, 49-48.
Romney's relatively high (60%) white share in this poll a few days ago, when he had a three-point lead, garnered very rare MSM attention. Last night, the poll's commentator Gary Langer mentioned in passing that Romney's white share is now down to 58%, for a twenty-point lead over Obama. The poll does not include racial breakdowns in its published data sheet.
- Ipsos/ Reuters Daily Tracking today (Nov. 3) shows Romney trailing Obama 46-47.
As Steve Sailer noted recently, Ipsos/ Reuters does make searches of its data base possible. Romney's recent white share: 49.4%, for a 13.8 point lead over Obama. These numbers are skewed downward because, unlike other polls, Ipsos/ Reuters does not factor out Wouldn't Vote (4.9%), None/ Other (4.3%), Don't Know (5.7%) and offers no guidance on how to do so. But for what it's worth, Romney's white share is trending upward: this is the highest shown by Ipsos/ Reuters all year.
- PPP Polling today (November 3) shows Romney now trailing Obama 47-50.
Very unusual in Establishment commentary, this Democratic pollster explicitly links Obama's improved standing to Romney's relatively weak white share, saying Obama has
reduced what had been a 20+ point deficit with white voters back down to a 57/40 spread. When you combine that with his 89/9 lead among African Americans and 67/28 edge with Hispanics it's the formula for a small overall lead
Yet another example of Romney's continuing problem with the Northern white working class: Rasmussen (Nov. 2) show Romney trailing (in the state of his birth) 47-52. Platinum subscribers can learn Romney's white share: a very undistinguished 55%, only twelve points ahead of Obama.