Late Obama Age Collapse Continuing But Slowing: Homicides Up 4% YTD
Murder Is Up Again In 2017, But Not As Much As Last Year
By Jeff Asher
JUL. 13, 2017 AT 10:47 AM
Big U.S. cities saw another increase in murders in the first half of 2017, likely putting them on track for a third straight year of rising totals after murder rates reached historic lows in 2014. So far, however, this year’s increase is considerably smaller than it was in each of the past two years; the big-city numbers are consistent with only a modest rise in murders nationwide.
… The most recent full year for which official data is available is 2015, when murders rose at their fastest pace in a quarter century. Official 2016 data won’t be available until the fall, but murder almost certainly rose last year too; in January, I found that big cities experienced a roughly 11 percent increase in murders in 2016, which past patterns suggest is consistent with about an 8 percent rise in murder overall.3
In order to gauge changes in the prevalence of murder in big cities in 2017, I collected year-to-date murder counts for 2017 and 2016 in 68 of the country’s big cities, using a mixture of data from the cities themselves and from media reports. …
These big cities have had roughly 4 percent more murders so far in 2017 than they did at the same point in 2016.
… St. Louis, Baltimore, New Orleans and Detroit have ranked among the top four cities in murder rate per 100,000 residents every year since 2014, and so far, 2017 does not appear to be any different.