Hawley: "Home Affordability, Female Marriage Rates And Vote Choice In The 2000 Us Presidential Election"

Here's a recent study in the academic journal "Party Politics" confirming my Affordable Family Formation theory of voting. I've usually worked at the state level, while this paper focuses on the county level:

Home affordability, female marriage rates and vote choice in the 2000 US presidential election: Evidence from US counties

George Hawley 

University of Houston, USA 

George Hawley, Department of Political Science, 447 Phillip Guthrie Hoffman Hall, University of Houston, 4800 Calhoun Road, Houston, TX 77204, USA. 

Email: george.hawley@gmail.com 

Abstract 

This article tests the hypothesis that differences in the housing market can partially explain why some American counties are strongly Republican and others strongly Democratic, and that this phenomenon can be largely attributed to the relationship between home values and marriage rates within counties. Specifically, I test the hypothesis that, in the 2000 election, George W. Bush did comparatively better in counties with relatively affordable single-family homes, even when controlling for other economic, demographic and regional variables. Using county-level data, I test this hypothesis using spatial-lag regression models, and provide further evidence using individual-level survey data. My results indicate a statistically significant relationship between Bush’s percentage of the vote at the county level and the median value of owner-occupied homes, and that at least part of this is explained by the relationship between home values and marriage rates among young women.