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Electing A New People: How Many New Voters Would Amnesty Create? A Lot!
CIS has a report on the number of immigrants who would be added to the voting rolls by the Gang of Eight bill. It's a very large number:
A look at the electoral implications of the Gang of Eight immigration billBy Steven A. Camarota October 2013
Steven A. Camarota is the Director of Research at the Center for Immigration Studies.
Based on projections published by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), we estimate that if S.744 were to become law it will add more than 17 million new potential voting-age citizens by 2036. These new potential voters are in addition to the nearly 15 million that the current level of legal immigration will add by 2036. Combined, current immigration plus the effects of S.744 would add more than 32 million potential new voting-age citizens by 2036. To place these figures in perspective, the last four presidential elections were decided by 4.5 million votes on average.
Among the report’s findings:
- Based on the CBO’s analysis of S.744, we project that the bill will add 4.6 million new potential voters above the number added by the current level of legal immigration by 2024. The bill would add 9.5 million potential voters by 2028 and 17.3 million by 2036.
- Of the new potential voters S.744 would create by 2036, slightly more than one-third would be a result of the bill’s amnesty provisions based on CBO projections, the rest are due to the bill’s large increases in future legal immigration.
- Even without the effects of S.744, the current level of immigration will add 5.1 million new potential voting-age citizens to the country by 2024, 8.4 million by 2028, and 14.9 million by 2036.
- Combined, the current level of immigration plus the additions from S.744 would create nearly 10 million potential voting-age citizens by 2024, and more than 32 million by 2036.
- The 32 million potential voters current immigration plus S.744 will create is slightly larger than the number of Americans over age 65 who voted in 2012. It is more than twice the number of veterans who voted in 2012, and nearly three times the number of Hispanics who voted last year. [More]
This is what Peter Brimelow and Ed Rubenstein were talking about in their articles "Electing A New People" [National Review, June 16, 1997] and Swept Away, American Outlook. [Fall 2001]. By the way, I used a different picture to illustrate this blog item than CIS did to illustrate their report. They used this stock image of a white hand and a ballot: