A Reader Predicts the Collapse of Mexico

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From: John H. Ciccolo,
Jr. (email
him
)

Re: Joe Guzzardi`s Column


In Looming Battle Public Relations Battle for Americans`
Hearts and Minds, Mexico Will Lose
.
 

Regarding Guzzardi`s column, the
fly in the ointment will be another patented collapse of
the Mexican economy.

Consider:


1. PEMEX

– peak oil for the Cantarella field will be late 2006 or
early 2007. This field accounts for 75% of

Mexican oil production
. The decline will be
swift—10-20 percent per year. Fox just redirected more
than $2 billion in exploration funds to political
parties for this year`s election. Pemex is $43 billion
in debt. A friend at Exxon-Mobil says no U.S. major will
touch Mexico now

because of its corruption.
Mexico has received no
offers to help explore the promising deep-water Gulf.
Mexico can`t afford to do it on its own: no money and no
expertise. (Of course, because of national pride,
many other industries are out of bounds to foreign
investment.)


2. Remittances.
Understand that

remittances
are not exclusively an indicator of the
number of illegals already here. They are also
an indicator of the growth rate of those illegals. Dad
comes to U.S., sends money home for a while, wife & kids
come (remittances fall or stop). If all Mexicans came
here tomorrow, there would be no remittances.

The level
of remittances probably reflects the pressure for future
illegal immigration. No matter what happens with

HR 4437
remittances will plummet over the next three
or four years. If open borders wins, family
reunification will reduce remittances, if they lose,
then senders will return home…either way less money
will be transferred south.


3. Drugs. 
Guzzardi`s
suggestion to decriminalize
marijuna
, if adopted, would

collapse Mexico
tomorrow. Estimated $128 billion per
year heads south from U.S.. This money shows up in U.S.
International Statistics as "errors and omissions"
and does not show up at all in Mexican accounts, which
resemble Al Capone`s tax returns.

Take $128
b. + $ $20 b. (remittances) + $10 b. (smuggling) and
divide by the total   Mexican population and you get
$1600 for every man, women and child.


4. Manufacturing.

Finally, it is becoming clearer almost daily that

India and China
are lower cost producers of an
increasing number of manufactured products. I first
noticed this while assembling computers that I install
for cash register systems.  First, Mexican modems
stopped, then the network cards and now the video cards.
Another friend at a Long Island company that designs
printed circuit boards (TV cards, video cards, etc.)
tells me that nothing has been manufactured in Mexico
for at least two years. My auto mechanic claims that
many Ford parts originally produced in Mexico now come
from China. I believe it is also true that the share of
Mexican GDP from manufacturing has fallen over the past
decade. That share is only 23% (2004).

The

incompetence
, xenophobia and

corruption
of the Mexican ruling class has made it
impossible for many hardworking people with the most
modest dreams to function in that damned country. 

A 1994-like collapse is a foregone
conclusion.

The implications of this are
appalling: a massive assault on our southern border.