August 09, 2002
View from Lodi, CA: Another Golden State Disaster Looms For GOP
By
Joe Guzzardi
Back in March, I
predicted that Gray Davis would beat
political neophyte William Simon in the November
gubernatorial race by 30 points.
On the strength of his rout I further predicted that
Davis could possibly emerge as a leading presidential
candidate for the Democratic Party in 2004.
In political prognosticating, .500 is a good average.
As of today, 30 points would seem to be the smallest
margin of victory that Davis could come away with
against Simon. The irony is that almost no one in
California wants to vote for either Simon or Davis.
Davis, always lacking in charisma, has been hammered
by his ineffectiveness as an administrator. Had he been
half-awake or half-interested, Davis might have been
able to help California avert its
energy crisis. But Davis has developed the
reputation of a manipulative, insensitive leader who
doesn’t think beyond his own interests.
As evidence, critics point to the inverse ratio
between California's budget deficit and Davis’s campaign
coffers.
Any ground-swell in support for a Davis 2004
presidential run currently seems as unlikely as a
November win by Simon.
But as far as the governor’s race is concerned, Davis
has gotten a real shot in the arm from the unbelievably
inept Simon. Things are so grim in the Simon camp that
President Bush is said to want to pull out from an
upcoming California trip.
Simon’s failure to submit his tax returns for public
scrutiny, his close business association with former
drug dealer Paul Hindelang, and the $78 million fraud
conviction of William E. Simon & Sons made Chris Lehane,
former crisis manager for Bill Clinton
cry out, “It’s a hat trick. You’ve got it all in
there.”
[Special Note for
VDARE.COM Readers: Simon has literally run away
from immigration even though he got a bump in the polls
early in the primaries when he suggested he supported
Proposition 187. But Simon didn't have the courage to go
forward. On a recent radio talk show, Simon was asked to
comment on Steve Lopez's July 26 Los Angeles Times
column,
"The Immigration Bomb, Bill
Simon, Are you Listening?" Simon danced around the
issues of immigration and population, the deepening
disasters detailed in Lopez's article.
Strategists know that
Prop 187 would pass today by an even greater margin than
in 1994. Yet Simon crawled away with his tail between
his legs.]
San Francisco Chronicle columnist Debra J.
Saunders, in her column
“Bill Simon should bow out”, offers a good solution
for Simon—make a grand gesture on behalf of the
Republican Party, declare himself a hopeless candidate
and throw his support behind Secretary of State Bill
Jones.
Jones couldn’t win at this late date, of course, but
he might be able to mount a noble charge.
In California, the Republican Party is
in the pits. The last time the state voted
Republican for President was 1988. The Democrats hold
the two U.S. Senate seats, the governor’s office, the
legislature and every statewide office except Secretary
of State.
Will the doom and gloom continue for the Republicans
in the 2004 Senate race against incumbent Barbara Boxer?
Or are there any fresh faces that might make things
interesting?
If I were the Republicans, I would start to bang the
drum for Congresswoman Mary Bono from the 44th
District of California’s Inland Empire.
A quick review of Bono’s credentials suggests that
she might do well against Senator Boxer.
[Another Special Note for VDARE.COM Readers: Her position on immigration is
unknown, but her late husband Sonny was famous for his
opinion that illegal immigration is ILLEGAL.]
First, to that which always counts most with today’s
voters: the superficial. Congresswoman Bono is young
(41), attractive and a mini-celebrity. Feature stories
about her have appeared in PEOPLE, Good
Housekeeping, Esquire and Elle as well
as in the
Washington Post, the
New York Times Magazine and USA Today.
Name recognition is not a problem for Mary Bono.
And Congresswoman Bono projects the healthy
California look that would help as she stumps through
the state. She’s an accomplished gymnast, a student of
Karate and Tae Kwan Do and a graduate of the University
of Southern California.
On the more important matters, Congresswoman Bono
sits on the Energy and Commerce Committee and the Energy
and Air Quality Subcommittee, issues key to
Californians. By the time 2004 rolls around,
Congresswoman Bono will have six years of legislative
experience. That’s six more years than Senator Hillary
Clinton had when she was elected.
As always, Republicans think that Senator Boxer is
vulnerable. The problem with that analysis is that it
has never been accurate.
Senator Boxer won five straight elections to the
House of Representatives between 1980-1990. In the
Senate primary in 1992, the favorite was
then-Congressman Mel Levine.
After Senator Boxer upset Levine, she was posted as
an underdog to Republican candidate Bruce Herschensohn.
But Senator Boxer defeated Herschensohn.
Again in 1998 Senator Boxer, who won re-election
going away, was considered no better than even money
against California State Treasurer Matt Fong.
The Republicans during these dark hours are desperate
for a winner. As of today, Congresswoman Bono looks like
a strong candidate for 2004. But the Republicans should
keep in mind that no one has ever had a payday wagering
against Senator Boxer.
Joe Guzzardi [email
him], an instructor in English
at the Lodi Adult School, has been writing a weekly
column since 1988. It currently appears in the
Lodi News-Sentinel.
