Winners and Losers From a Pharaoh`s Fall
Among the biggest losers of the
Egyptian uprising are, first, the Mubaraks, who are
finished, and, next, the United States and Israel.
Hosni Mubarak will be out by year`s
end, if not the end of this month, or week. He will not
run again and
will not be succeeded by son Gamal, whom he had
groomed and who has fled to London.
Today, the lead party in
determining Egypt`s future is the army. Cheered in the
streets of Cairo, respected by the people, that army is
not going to fire on peaceful demonstrators to keep in
power a regime with one foot already in the grave.
Only if fired on by provocateurs is
the army likely to clear Tahrir Square the way the
Chinese army cleared Tiananmen Square.
But the army does have an immense
stake in who rules, and that stake would not be well
served by one-man, one-vote democracy.
Like the Turkish army, the Egyptian
army sees itself as guardian of the nation. From the
Egyptian military have come all four of the leaders who
have ruled since the 1952 colonel`s revolt that ousted
King Farouk: Gens. Naguib, Sadat and Mubarak, and Col.
The military has also been for 30
years the recipient of $1.2 billion dollars a year from
the United States. Its weapons come from America.
Moreover, the army has a vital interest in the
"cold peace" with
Israel that has kept it out of war since
1973, produced the return of Sinai, and maintained
Egypt`s role as the leader of the moderate Arabs and
major ally of the United States.
The Egyptian army is also aware of
happened to the Iranian generals when the
Shah fell, and what is happening to the Turkish army
as the Islamicizing regime of Prime Minister Erdogan
strips that army of its role as arbiter of whether a
Turkish regime stays or goes.
The Egyptian army will not yield
its position readily, which is why it may tilt to the
ex-generals Mubarak named Friday as vice president and
The army`s rival is the Muslim
Brotherhood. The oldest Islamic movement in the Middle
East, the most unified opponent of the regime, its
future in a
democratic Egypt, as part of a ruling coalition or
major opposition party, seems assured.
And while the crowds in Cairo and
Alexandria are united in what they wish to be rid of,
the Muslim Brotherhood is united in knowing the kind of
state and nation it wishes to establish.
Why are the United States and
Israel seemingly certain losers from the fall of
Mubarak? Because in any free and fair election in the
Middle East, a majority will vote for rulers who will
distance the country from America and sever ties to
When it comes to America and
Israel, there is little doubt where the
stands. And the freer the elections, the more the views
of the Arab street will be reflected in the new Arab
But why do they hate us? Is it
because of who we are?
Surely, it is not our freedom of
speech, freedom of the press, freedom of assembly or
free elections for which we are hated. For this is what
the demonstrators are clamoring for. Indeed, it is in
the name of these freedoms that the Egyptian people are
demanding that we cease standing behind Mubarak and
stand with them.
No, the United States is not hated
across the region because of the freedoms we enjoy or
even because of the lectures on democracy we do not
cease to deliver. We are hated because we are perceived
as hypocrites who say one thing and do another.
The Arabs say we support despots
who deny them the rights we cherish. They say we preach
endlessly of human rights but imposed savage sanctions
on Iraq for a dozen years before 2003 that brought
premature death to half a million children. They say we
use our power to invade countries that never attacked
They say we have provided Israel
with the weapons to crush the Palestinians and steal
their land, and that we practice a moral double
standard. We condemn attacks on Israelis, but sit silent
as Israel bombs Lebanon for five weeks and conducts a
war on Gaza, killing 1,400 and wounding thousands, most
of them civilians.
Any truth to all this? Or is this
just Arab propaganda?
After losing Turkey as an ally,
Israel has just seen Hezbollah come to power in Beirut
and the Palestinian Authority stripped of its
credibility by the Wikileaks exposure of its groveling
to America and Israel. Now Israel faces the near
certainty of a more hostile Egypt.
As for America, if we are about to
be thrown out of the Middle East, it would be neither
undeserved nor an unmitigated disaster.
After all, it`s their world, not
CREATORS SYNDICATE, INC.
Patrick J. Buchanan
no introduction to
VDARE.COM readers; his book State
of Emergency: The Third World Invasion and
Conquest of America, can
be ordered from Amazon.com. His latest book
Hitler, and "The Unnecessary War": How
Britain Lost Its Empire and the West Lost
Paul Craig Roberts.