Whites, Not Hispanics, Are The Swing Vote In California

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, Ethnopolitics:
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Does the California election prove
that Republicans can now win the Hispanic vote? That`s
what some pundits are claiming because of the
comparatively low support won by

professional Hispanic candidate
Lt. Gov. Cruz
Bustamante (54 percent) and the supposedly high support
captured by winner

Arnold Schwarzenegger

As usual, of course, the

are full of fly specks.

First of all, Senor Bustamante`s
relatively low Hispanic support doesn`t mean his
Republican opponents did unusually well. The headline of
a post-election article in the Los Angeles Times
last week crowed that "GOP
makes gains among Latinos
"[By Rich Connell
and Daniel Hernandez, October 11, 2003] though the
body of the story is a bit more subdued.

It turns out that the "gains" won
by the two Republican candidates, Mr. Schwarzenegger and
state Sen. Tom McClintock, were mainly among
upper-income (indeed, high income) Hispanics.

"Half of Latino voters in homes
earning $60,000 to $100,000,"
the Times story
reports, supported one of the two Republicans, while
"in Latino households with earnings above $100,000, 57%
supported the recall and 60% voted for Schwarzenegger or
McClintock. The pattern followed that of voters
So why is that surprising?

As I noted in a

recent column,
25 to 30 percent of Hispanic voters
in California have always voted Republican, and 37
percent voted for

Proposition 187
in 1994, a measure widely regarded
as anti-Hispanic and anti-immigrant because it cut off

public benefits
to illegal aliens. Probably most of
the Hispanics who do vote Republican are upper-income,
and the portion of the Hispanic vote won by the two
Republicans (39 percent) is hardly unusual or new.

But, as for the GOP now having a
good chance to win more Hispanic votes in the future,
don`t bet your annual income on it. As the Times
also notes, "Statewide, low-income Latinos opposed
the recall and supported Bustamante by the widest
margins: In each case more than three out of five voters
in households earning less than $40,000, according to
the poll."

And the point is that in
California, thanks to the mass immigration imported by
the Open Borders lobby, lower income Hispanics dominate
in the Hispanic electorate.

The real reason Mr. Schwarzenegger
won, as both I and UPI

political analyst
Steve Sailer have

pointed out
, is that he won the
white vote
, which remains

for any Republican victory. He took the
white vote by 51 percent, and the two Republicans
together took 65-67 percent of it. Mr. Schwarzenegger`s
share was not so impressive but better than earlier
Republican gubernatorial candidates in the state`s last
two elections, who won well less than 50 percent.

Taken together, the two
Republicans` share in this election means simply this:
Whites have largely deserted the Democrats, and that`s
the real reason they lost.

Moreover, it`s why the Republican
won, though you might find it hard to persuade him of
that. A

new poll
sponsored by the Federation for American
Immigration Reform (FAIR) shows that Democratic Gov.
Gray Davis` support for letting illegal immigrants get

driver`s licenses
was a decisive factor. The poll
shows that "30 percent of voters said Davis` approval
of the bill influenced their decision to support the
CNS News

this week. Since Mr. Schwarzenegger was
opposed to the bill, it makes sense the voters who
agreed with him on that issue were attracted to him.

Since he also had supported Prop
187 itself and had its chief backer, former Gov. Pete
Wilson in his campaign, Mr. Schwarzenegger really didn`t
have to say much about immigration at all. Voters
assumed he would be tough on it. They assumed wrong.

Presumably voters who opposed
driver`s licenses for illegals are also opposed to
amnesty, yet the fact is that Mr. Schwarzenegger
endorsed amnesty during the campaign. He avoided the
word, but in his first press conference after the
election he made his position perfectly clear.

The governor-elect

the stealth amnesty bill sponsored in the
U.S. Senate by

Sen. John McCain
that would allow illegal immigrants
to gain "temporary"
work visas.

"I want to make all undocumented
immigrants documented and legal in this country,"

That`s why Mr. Schwarzenegger
doesn`t seem to grasp why he won or the latent racial
dynamics of the election. Whites supported him (and Mr.
McClintock, who took much the same position on drivers`
licenses but a

tougher one on illegal immigration) because
of those positions. They supported the recall and
deserted the Democrats for the same reason.

And what that means is that the

don`t need
to chuckle over how swell they did among

or worry what one or another GOP candidate
might say against immigration.

What they need to worry about is
whether they can

the white vote—especially after Mr.
Schwarzenegger essentially betrayed his own white voters
by endorsing the amnesty they thought he opposed.



[Sam Francis [email
him] is a nationally syndicated columnist. A selection
of his columns,

America Extinguished: Mass Immigration And The
Disintegration Of American Culture
, is now available

Americans For Immigration Control.

Click here for Sam Francis`