Whites, Not Hispanics, Are The Swing Vote In California
order Sam Francis` new monograph, Ethnopolitics:
Immigration, Race, and the American Political Future]
Does the California election prove
that Republicans can now win the Hispanic vote? That`s
what some pundits are claiming because of the
comparatively low support won by
professional Hispanic candidate Lt. Gov. Cruz
Bustamante (54 percent) and the supposedly high support
captured by winner
Arnold Schwarzenegger (30
As usual, of course, the
pundits are full of fly specks.
First of all, Senor Bustamante`s
relatively low Hispanic support doesn`t mean his
Republican opponents did unusually well. The headline of
a post-election article in the Los Angeles Times
last week crowed that "GOP
makes gains among Latinos,"[By Rich Connell
and Daniel Hernandez, October 11, 2003] though the
body of the story is a bit more subdued.
It turns out that the "gains" won
by the two Republican candidates, Mr. Schwarzenegger and
state Sen. Tom McClintock, were mainly among
upper-income (indeed, high income) Hispanics.
"Half of Latino voters in homes
earning $60,000 to $100,000," the Times story
reports, supported one of the two Republicans, while
"in Latino households with earnings above $100,000, 57%
supported the recall and 60% voted for Schwarzenegger or
McClintock. The pattern followed that of voters
overall." So why is that surprising?
As I noted in a
recent column, 25 to 30 percent of Hispanic voters
in California have always voted Republican, and 37
percent voted for
Proposition 187 in 1994, a measure widely regarded
as anti-Hispanic and anti-immigrant because it cut off
public benefits to illegal aliens. Probably most of
the Hispanics who do vote Republican are upper-income,
and the portion of the Hispanic vote won by the two
Republicans (39 percent) is hardly unusual or new.
But, as for the GOP now having a
good chance to win more Hispanic votes in the future,
don`t bet your annual income on it. As the Times
also notes, "Statewide, low-income Latinos opposed
the recall and supported Bustamante by the widest
margins: In each case more than three out of five voters
in households earning less than $40,000, according to
And the point is that in
California, thanks to the mass immigration imported by
the Open Borders lobby, lower income Hispanics dominate
in the Hispanic electorate.
The real reason Mr. Schwarzenegger
won, as both I and UPI
political analyst Steve Sailer have
pointed out, is that he won the
white vote, which remains
critical for any Republican victory. He took the
white vote by 51 percent, and the two Republicans
together took 65-67 percent of it. Mr. Schwarzenegger`s
share was not so impressive but better than earlier
Republican gubernatorial candidates in the state`s last
two elections, who won well less than 50 percent.
Taken together, the two
Republicans` share in this election means simply this:
Whites have largely deserted the Democrats, and that`s
the real reason they lost.
Moreover, it`s why the Republican
won, though you might find it hard to persuade him of
new poll sponsored by the Federation for American
Immigration Reform (FAIR) shows that Democratic Gov.
Gray Davis` support for letting illegal immigrants get
driver`s licenses was a decisive factor. The poll
shows that "30 percent of voters said Davis` approval
of the bill influenced their decision to support the
recall," CNS News
reported this week. Since Mr. Schwarzenegger was
opposed to the bill, it makes sense the voters who
agreed with him on that issue were attracted to him.
Since he also had supported Prop
187 itself and had its chief backer, former Gov. Pete
Wilson in his campaign, Mr. Schwarzenegger really didn`t
have to say much about immigration at all. Voters
assumed he would be tough on it. They assumed wrong.
Presumably voters who opposed
driver`s licenses for illegals are also opposed to
amnesty, yet the fact is that Mr. Schwarzenegger
endorsed amnesty during the campaign. He avoided the
word, but in his first press conference after the
election he made his position perfectly clear.
"I want to make all undocumented
immigrants documented and legal in this country," he
That`s why Mr. Schwarzenegger
doesn`t seem to grasp why he won or the latent racial
dynamics of the election. Whites supported him (and Mr.
McClintock, who took much the same position on drivers`
licenses but a
somewhat tougher one on illegal immigration) because
of those positions. They supported the recall and
deserted the Democrats for the same reason.
What they need to worry about is
whether they can
keep the white vote—especially after Mr.
Schwarzenegger essentially betrayed his own white voters
by endorsing the amnesty they thought he opposed.
CREATORS SYNDICATE, INC.
[Sam Francis [email
him] is a nationally syndicated columnist. A selection
of his columns,