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If
Barack Obama is sincere in his policy of
"no nukes in Iran—no
war with Iran",
he will halt this rude dismissal of the offer Tehran
just made to ship half its stockpile of uranium to
Turkey.
Consider what President
Ahmadinejad
and the Ayatollah himself have just committed to do.
Iran
will deliver 1,200 kilograms, well over a ton, of its
2-ton stockpile of low-enriched uranium (LEU) to Turkey.
In return, Iran will receive, in a year, 120 kilograms
of fuel rods for its U.S.-built reactor that produces
medical isotopes for treating cancer patients.
Not
only did Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey
and President Lula da Silva of Brazil put their prestige
on the line by flying to Tehran, the deal they got is a
near-exact replica of the deal Obama offered Iran eight
months ago.
Why
is President Obama slapping it away? Does he not want a
deal? Has he already decided on the sanctions road that
leads to war?
Has
the
War
Party captured
the Obama presidency?
If
Iran ships the LEU to Turkey, she would be left with
only enough low-enriched uranium for one test explosion.
And as that LEU is under U.N. surveillance, America
would have a long lead time to act if Iran began to
convert the LEU to weapons grade.
How is the Iranian program then an
"existential threat" to anyone?
Israel has hundreds of nuclear weapons—America
thousands.
Critics say Iran still refuses to shut down the
centrifuges turning out low-grade uranium. But if Iran
stops the centrifuges, she surrenders her last
bargaining chip to get sanctions lifted.
Critics say Iran is trying to abort Hillary Clinton's
campaign to have the Security Council impose a fourth
round of sanctions. Undeniably true.
But
if the purpose of sanctions is to force Iran to
negotiate its nuclear program, they are already working.
Tehran's latest offer represents real movement.
Critics say Iran will weasel out if we take up the deal.
Perhaps. Internal opposition caused Ahmadinejad to back
away from Obama's original offer, after he had indicated
initial acceptance.
But,
if so, Iran will be seen as duplicitous by Turkey and
Brazil.
To the world today, the United States
appears enraged that Iran is responding to America's own
offer, that it is we who do not want a peaceful
resolution, that we and the Israelis are as hell-bent on
war and "regime
change" in Iran as George W. Bush was on war and
regime change in Iraq.
While the Brazilians and Turks have surely complicated
Hillary's diplomacy, their motives are not necessarily
sinister or malevolent.
Lula
may be trying to one-up Obama and win a Nobel Prize as
he leaves office. But what is wrong with that? Bill
Clinton had a Nobel in mind when, in his final days, he
went all-out for a Palestinian peace.
And
Erdogan leads a country that cannot wish to see Iran
acquire nuclear weapons. For Shia Iran shares a border
with Sunni Turkey, and the two are rivals for influence
in the Islamic world and Central Asia.
Moreover, an Iranian bomb would force Turkey to consider
a Turkish bomb. Erdogan thus has every incentive to seek
a resolution of this crisis, to keep Iran free of
nuclear weapons, and avert a war between yet another
neighbor and his NATO ally, the United States.
If
Obama refuses to take the Iranian offer seriously, it
would appear a sure sign that the War Party has taken
him into camp and he is departing the negotiating track
for the confrontation track that leads to war.
Months ago, Time's
Tony Karon asked the relevant question:
"What if Ahmadinejad is serious?"
And
there are obvious reasons why he might want a deal.
First, Iran runs out of fuel this year for its reactor
that produces medical isotopes. And despite Tehran's
braggadocio about making fuel rods itself out of its
existing pile of uranium, there is no evidence Tehran is
technically capable of this.
Iranians dying of cancer because
Ahmadinejad failed to get those fuel rods would create
enmity toward him, as well as hatred of us for denying
them to Iranian cancer patients.
Second, as the U.S. intelligence
community yet contends, there is no hard evidence Iran
has decided to go nuclear. For this would instantly put
Iran in the nuclear gunsights of the United States and
Israel. And what benefit would Shia and Persian Iran,
half of whose population is non-Persian, gain by
starting a nuclear arms race in a region that is
predominantly Arab and Sunni?
Third, Ahmadinejad leads a nation that
is united in insisting on all its rights under the
Nonproliferation Treaty, including the right to enrich.
But his nation is deeply divided over his regime's
legitimacy after last June's flawed, if not fixed,
election.
If the United States were to accept
Iran's counter-offer, it would be a diplomatic coup for
Ahmadinejad.
Maybe that's the problem. The Powers That Be don't
really want a deal with Iran. They want Iran smashed.
COPYRIGHT CREATORS SYNDICATE, INC.
Patrick J. Buchanan
needs
no introduction to
VDARE.COM readers; his book State
of Emergency: The Third World Invasion and
Conquest of America, can
be ordered from Amazon.com. His latest book
is Churchill,
Hitler, and "The Unnecessary War": How
Britain Lost Its Empire and the West Lost
the World,
reviewed
here by
Paul Craig Roberts.