Sailer Strategy Supplement: Rebrand Democrats As The Black Party

Two weeks ago,
that the Republican Party has been digging itself
an ever deeper
electoral hole
by tolerating (when not

) the lax immigration policies of
last four-plus decades
. These caused demographic changes
that are indisputably and
to the


Yet, I pointed
out, there remains a logical possibility that the country
can avoid one-party Democratic rule even as far out as the
middle of the 21st century. If all else remains equal, I
calculated, Republican candidates could win in the 2048-2052
era simply by 1) increasing the GOP`s share of the
, from

McCain`s 55 percent to 70 percent
, and by 2) raising the

white turnout level
back to that seen in 1992.

this fairly obvious but apparently unmentionable option is
called the

“Sailer Strategy”.

course, this arithmetic raises some difficult questions.

For example,
how could the GOP go about
deserving to get
70 percent of the white vote? That`s a question I can`t
fully answer yet. But at least I`m thinking about it, which,
I suspect, is more than you can say for anybody

connected to the Republican Party

any official capacity.

difficult question is: How can the GOP keep
“all else equal” while raising the white share of the vote?

For example,
the blogger The Cold Equations

thusly on the possibility of the GOP getting
about 70 percent of the white vote:

“This is not out of the question. Other races
in blocs
. But, I`m not sure how it could be done,
especially without alienating other races and making the
target even higher, high enough that you`d have to get white
hardcore liberals, which isn`t going to happen.”

On this
reading, the Republican Party can`t
just have a
positive strategy of attracting and mobilizing
There has to be a supplementary tactic.
Republicans must also drive voters
away from the
Democrats by using wedge issues and shrewd rhetoric to
aggravate the inevitable fault lines in the

Democrats` unwieldy coalition.

Even if
this doesn`t convert anyone to the GOP, it would lower
turnout among potential voters who lean Democrat.

In 2008,
McCain let Obama position himself to blacks as

the black candidate
, to

other nonwhites
as the nonwhite candidate, and to whites
as the
postracial candidate.
Yet, unless treated as

as McCain handled his opponent in 2008, a
black-led four-race coalition is an inherently fragile

The good
news for the GOP about black voters: it really can`t get
much worse than 2008. McCain ran as gingerly as imaginable
on topics even remotely related to race, and still

lost 95-4 among blacks.

And black
turnout was very high. Indeed, the highest turnout rate
among any group was among

black women
—which is quite remarkable considering that
turnout typically correlates positively with income,
education, and age. This is a tribute to the
of blacks.

Imagine that
the GOP starts finally advocating and delivering on policies
that are beneficial for America`s white majority, and in
response the Republican Party drops a stunning
three-fourths of

black support.
Instead of losing among blacks 95-4, the
GOP would then lose 98-1.


The more
important question is: What about the growing immigrant
groups, the Hispanics and the
who, together, cast

percent of the vote in 2008?

labored mightily to
convert Hispanics
into Republicans,
with minimal success and catastrophic
. There simply are fundamental reasons why a

low-income group
will always be
to the Democrats, with their proud

tradition. (Asians
might be a
different story, but there`s no evidence of it as yet and
anyway nobody has paid them much attention.)

A more
plausible Republican strategy, one with much history on its
side, is to work to make Hispanics and Asians less
enthusiastic about voting Democrat.

they could get so disgusted with the Democrats that they
convert to Republicans. Or maybe not. Maybe they`ll just
vote less. Half a loaf (or a non-cast vote from your
opponent`s base constituency) is better than none.

Hispanics and Asians have been good at not voting. Hispanics
tend to find politics a bore and Asians find it a
distraction. Even in 2008, with the excitement of voting for
a non-white candidate, neither group saw even

of its citizens turn out, versus 66 percent of
whites and 65 percent of blacks. And lots of

permanent residents
(especially Mexicans)

never bother
becoming citizens.

But let`s be
realistic. Being, in essence, the white party
the GOP uncool
. And that`s only going to get worse as
the impact of
of indoctrination in the

uncoolness of white people
by the school system and Main
Stream Media continue to pile up.

Karl Rove,
the GOP will never
be able to shake its white party image. It will either
increase its share of the white vote or it will go out of
business as a

party capable of winning national power.

My suggestion: the only long-term option
for the Republicans, the de facto white party, is to rebrand
the Democrats as the de facto
black party.

Not the Minority Party or the
Hip, Multicultural
Party—but the Black Party. Go with
the flow of the fundamental

of American thought: Black versus White.

Sure, it`s kind of retarded, but
Americans, especially American intellectuals and pundits,
aren`t good at thinking in terms of

shades of brown.
You can`t beat it, so use it.

Hispanics and Asians certainly will never
be terribly happy with the idea of being junior partners in
the white party. (Indeed, lots of white people have an
allergy to belonging to the

white party
.) Hence, the alternative must be framed that
if Hispanics and Asians don`t want to be junior partners in
the white party, they get be junior partners in the black

Black or
white: choose one.

Or they
can not choose and stay home on Election Day.

The subtle cunning of the tactic of
rebranding the Democrats as the black party is not to
criticize the Democrats for being the vehicle of

African-American political activism,
but to
praise them for
it, over and over, in the most offhand
“everybody-knows” ways.

Republicans can hurry along the coming
Democratic train wreck by, for example, lauding blacks as
the “moral
of the

Democratic Party
. Respectfully point out that the
Democratic Party is the rightful agent for the assertion of

African-American racial interests,
and that advancing
black interests is central to the nature of the Democratic
Party. Note that, while individual blacks wishing to vote
the good of the country
are more than welcome in the
GOP, black racial activists have their

natural home
in the Democratic Party. That`s what the
Democrats are there for.

argue it. Just treat it as a given.

Moreover, Republican rhetoric should
encourage feelings of proprietariness among blacks toward
their Democratic
Party. It`s not all that hard to get blacks to feel that
morally deserve something,
such as, for example,

predominance in the Democratic Party.
are good at feeling that others owe them deference.

kind of subtle language, casually repeated, puts Democrats
in a delicate spot. Either they insult blacks by denying
this presumption, or they alarm their Asian, Hispanic, and
white supporters by not denying it. As everybody knows, but
seldom says, black political control hasn`t worked out well
for places as far apart as



For instance, 2016 on the Democratic side
will be interesting. If Obama wins re-election in 2012,
blacks will argue, not unreasonably, that they`ve brought
the Democrats political prosperity and therefore a black
deserves a spot on the 2016 national ticket. If Obama
loses re-election,
the media will relentlessly
blame it
on white racism,
and blacks in 2016 will demand a black
candidate to fight the scourge of anti-black feelings.

Even if
blacks are rebuffed by the Democrats in the 2016 nominating
process, they aren`t going to vote Republican in the fall.
But without a black on the ballot, they won`t show up to
vote in quite the huge numbers seen in 2008.

Conversely, if the Democrats pander to blacks in 2016, thus
establishing a precedent of a permanent black spot on the
national ticket, that will raise severe questions in the
rest of this awkward alliance.

As the
black sense of rightful ascendancy in the Democratic Party
becomes more pronounced, Hispanics will be demanding that

burgeoning numbers mean that it`s now
their turn.

Meanwhile, more

will wonder why they are supporting an
agglomeration dominated by blacks who
share their values
. And white Democrats will wonder how
exactly they can prosper in a party where everybody else is
allowed to speak out in internal disputes as representatives
of a legitimately aggrieved racial group, but

faces a daunting future of their own making. Then, again, so
do the Democrats. All Democrats should be helpfully assisted
to confront this.

[Steve Sailer (email
him) is

movie critic

The American Conservative

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