National Data | September Jobs: Immigrant Displacement of American Workers Reaches ANOTHER New High


The shutdown-delayed employment report for September, which was supposed to be released about three weeks ago, found that only 148,000 jobs were added over the month. Even this may be too optimistic, as it reflects the situation prior to the government shutdown. Government employment actually rose in September.

Since January, employers have added an average of 177,000 net new jobs per month. The rate slipped over the summer, to only 143,000 per month. Unmentioned in Main Stream Media accounts of this disappointing development: more than half of the new positions will be needed just to absorb new legal immigrants.

This job growth slowdown should worry the Obama Administration, but it apparently it doesn’t. Indeed, the push to legalize millions of illegal aliens already working in the U.S. and increase legal immigration from its current record levels only intensified after the government re-opened for business. As we reported a few weeks ago, S.744 would add a minimum of 33 million more lifetime work permits in its first decade than would occur under current law.

Our analysis of the “other” employment report—of households rather than businesses—shows how desperate the situation has already become for native-born American workers.

            In September:

  • Total employment rose by 133,000, or by 0.1%
  • Native-born American employment fell by 73,000, or by -0.1%
  • Foreign-born employment rose by 206,000, or by 0.9%

September was the second successive month in which native-born American workers actually held fewer jobs in absolute terms, while foreign-born workers enjoyed robust job growth.

The number of employed immigrants rose by 0.87% in September—the largest growth rate recorded for that month since the economic recovery began in 2009.  The immigrant share of U.S. employment—16.62%—was the highest for any September during the Obama years.

 

Foreign-born Employment (millions)

 

August

September

% chg.

2009

21,596

21,815

1.01%

2010

22,311

22,173

-0.62%

2011

22,200

22,162

-0.17%

2012

23,019

23,143

0.54%

2013

23,777

23,983

0.87%

Foreign-born Share of Total Employment (%)

 

August

September

% chg.

2009

15.49%

15.72%

1.48%

2010

16.02%

15.91%

-0.69%

2011

15.89%

15.82%

-0.44%

2012

16.19%

16.19%

0.00%

2013

16.49%

16.62%

0.78%

Source: Author`s analysis of unseasonalized BLS data.

 

From September 2009 to September 2013 the share of total jobs held by immigrants rose from 15.72% to 16.62%.

Had the immigrant share of employment remained at its September 2009 level, 1.30 million more native-born American workers would have been employed this September. The overall unemployment rate would have been about a percentage point lower than the 7.2% reported by the Labor Department.

We chart the displacement of native-born workers by immigrants in our New VDARE.com American Worker Displacement Index (NVDAWDI). It tracks month to month changes in native-born American and foreign-born employment since the start of the Obama Administration:

National Data | September Jobs: Immigrant Displacement of American Workers Reaches ANOTHER New High

The growth of native-born American employment is tracked by the blue line, immigrant employment growth is in pink, and NVAWDI—the ratio of immigrant to native-born American job growth—is in yellow. The graphic starts at 100.0 for both native-born and immigrant employment in January 2009, and tracks their growth since then.

            From January 2009 to September 2013:

  • Foreign-born employment increased by 2.336 million, or by +10.8%. The immigrant employment index rose from 100.0 to 110.8.
  • Native-born American employment declined by 254,000, or by -0.21%. The native-born American employment index in September 2013 was 99.8—slightly below the level of January 2009, when Obama assumed office.
  • NVDAWDI (the ratio of immigrant to native-born employment growth indexes) rose from 100.0 to a record 111.0 (100X(110.8/99.8)

A more detailed picture of American worker displacement over the past year is seen in figures published in the BLS monthly job report:

 

 

Employment Status by Nativity, Sept. 2012- Sept. 2013

(numbers in 1000s; not seasonally adjusted)

 

Sep-12

Sep-13

Change

% Change

Foreign born, 16 years and older

Civilian population

38,103

38,854

751

2.0%

Civilian labor force

25,116

25,713

597

2.4%

     Participation rate (%)

65.9%

66.2%

0.3 %pts.

0.5%

Employed

23,201

24,041

840

3.6%

Employment/population %

60.9%

61.9%

1.0 %pts.

1.6%

Unemployed

1,915

1,871

-44

-2.3%

Unemployment rate (%)

7.6%

6.5%

-1.1 %pts.

-14.5%

Not in labor force

12,986

13,142

156

1.2%

 

Native born, 16 years and older

Civilian population

205,670

207,314

1,644

0.8%

Civilian labor force

129,958

129,823

-135

-0.1%

     Participation rate (%)

63.2%

62.6%

-0.6 %pts.

-0.9%

Employed

120,132

120,610

478

0.4%

Employment/population %

58.4%

58.2%

-0.2 %pts.

-0.3%

Unemployed

9,826

9,213

-613

-6.2%

Unemployment rate (%)

7.6%

7.1%

-0.5 %pts.

-6.6%

Not in labor force

75,711

77,491

1,780

2.4%

Source: BLS, The Employment Situation – September 2013, October 22, 2013.Table A-7.

PDF

 

Over the past 12 months:

  • Immigrants gained 840,000 jobs, a 3.6% increase; native-born American workers gained 478,000 positions, a 0.4% increase. ADVANTAGE IMMIGRANTS
  • The unemployment rate for immigrants fell by 1.1 percentage point—or by 14.5%; the native-born unemployment rate fell by 0.5 percentage points – a 6.6% decline. ADVANTAGE IMMIGRANTS
  • The labor force participation rate—a measure of worker confidence—declined for native-born American and rose for immigrants. At 66.2%, the immigrant participation rate in August 2013 was 4.0 % points above the native rate.
  • The number of immigrants “not in the labor force”—i.e., neither working nor looking for work—rose by 156,000, or by 1.2%; the number native-born not in the labor force rose by 1.790 million, or by 2.4%. ADVANTAGE IMMIGRANTS

Bottom line: Immigration policy is immiserating American workers—and that’s before the Schumer/ Rubio Amnesty/ Immigration Surge bill, or any other related increase, kicks in.

Edwin S. Rubenstein (email him) is President of ESR Research Economic Consultants.