National Data | June Jobs: Record Immigrant Displacement Of American Workers

Just as the U.S. House of Representatives is returning from the July 4 recess to take up the Schumer/Rubio Amnesty/ Immigration Surge bill, the Labor Department has reported that unemployment remained stubbornly stuck at 7.6% in June, although the reported 195,000 jobs created in June was better than expected. This persistently high unemployment is not surprising: nearly half of the June job gains are needed just to absorb the 90,000 legal immigrants that arrive in the U.S. every month. It’s why VDARE.com keeps saying there should be an immigration moratorium. Instead, incredibly, Schumer-Rubio proposes to double (at least) that legal influx.

Indeed, our analysis of the June data indicates that the job market is fairly strong—but for immigrant workers only. Native-born Americans continue to lose jobs, exit the labor force, and retire earlier than planned.

Result: immigrant displacement of American workers had reached an all-time Obama Era high.

The “other” employment survey, of Households, shows a 160,000 job gain in June. The Household Survey now reports place of birth (but not legal status—it includes illegals). This allows us to see that behind the job growth lie two disparate job markets:

  • Total employment rose by 160,000, or by 0.11%
  • Native-born employment fell by 84,000, or by -0.07%
  • Foreign-born employment rose by 244,000, or by 1.05%

Immigrant job growth north of 1.0% per month is particularly noteworthy. If that rate persists, immigrant employment will double within 72 months—or by June 2019. That surely rivals (exceeds?) immigrant job growth in any comparable period of U.S. history.

Perhaps there are seasonal factors that propel immigrant employment up faster than native-born employment in the month of June. Nevertheless, the spike in foreign-born employment this June stands in sharp contrast to the declines over the past two Junes.

In fact, the immigrant share of total U.S. employment in June—16.34%—was higher than in any other June during the Obama years:

Foreign-born Employment (millions)

 

May

June

% chg.

2009

21.499

21.665

0.77%

2010

22.113

22.418

1.38%

2011

22.176

22.134

-0.19%

2012

22.967

22.859

-0.47%

2013

23.298

23.542

1.05%

Foreign-born Share of Total Employment (%)

 

May

June

% chg.

2009

15.31%

15.47%

1.06%

2010

15.86%

16.11%

1.60%

2011

15.87%

15.89%

0.13%

2012

16.14%

16.05%

-0.56%

2013

16.19%

16.34%

0.94%

Source: Author`s analysis of BLS unseasonalized data.

The displacement of native-born Americans by immigrants also reached an Obama-era peak in June. This is made clear in our New VDARE.com American Worker Displacement Index (NVDAWDI).  It tracks native-born and foreign-born employment growth for every month since the start of the Obama Administration:

National Data | June Jobs: Record Immigrant Displacement Of American Workers

Native-born employment growth is the blue line, immigrant employment growth is in pink, and NVAWDI—the ratio of immigrant to native-born job growth—is yellow. To chart American worker displacement, we set both the native-born and immigrant employment indexes in January 2009 at 100.0.

                Since January 2009:

  • Foreign-born employment rose by 1.895 million, or by 8.8%. The immigrant employment index rose from 100.0 to 108.8.
  • Native-born American employment declined by 58,000 or by -0.05%. The native-born American employment index in June 2013 was a tad below 100.0—actually below the level of January 2009. In other words,
  • NVDAWDI (the ratio of immigrant to native-born employment growth indexes) rose from 100.0 to a record 108.8 (100X(108.8/100.0)

A more detailed picture of American worker displacement over the past year is seen in figures published in the BLS household monthly job report:

Employment Status by Nativity, June 2012-June 2013

(numbers in 1000s; not seasonally adjusted)

 

Jun-12

Jun-13

Change

% Change

Foreign born, 16 years and older

Civilian population

37,315

37,658

343

0.9%

Civilian labor force

25,009

25,305

296

1.2%

Participation rate (%)

67.0%

67.2%

0.2%

0.3%

Employed

22,985

23,670

685

3.0%

Employment/population %

61.6%

62.9%

1.3%

2.1%

Unemployed

2,024

1,635

-389

-19.2%

Unemployment rate (%)

8.1%

6.5%

-1.6%

-19.8%

Not in labor force

12,306

12,353

47

0.4%

 

Native born, 16 years and older

Civilian population

205,840

207,894

2,054

1.0%

Civilian labor force

131,377

131,785

408

0.3%

Participation rate (%)

63.8%

63.4%

-0.4%

-0.6%

Employed

120,217

121,172

955

0.8%

Employment/population %

58.4%

58.3%

-0.1%

-0.2%

Unemployed

11,160

10,613

-547

-4.9%

Unemployment rate (%)

8.5%

8.1%

-0.4%

-4.7%

Not in labor force

74,464

76,110

1,646

2.2%

Source: BLS, The Employment Situation – June 2013, July 5, 2013. Table A-7.

PDF

 

Over the past 12 months:

  • Immigrants gained 685,000 jobs, a 3.0% increase; native-born workers gained 955,000 positions, a 0.8% increase. ADVANTAGE (RELATIVELY SPEAKING) IMMIGRANTS
  • The immigrant unemployment rate fell by 1.6 percentage points – or by 19.8%; native-born unemployment fell by 0.4 percentage points – a 4.7% decline. ADVANTAGE IMMIGRANTS; IN ADDITION:
  • The labor force participation rate—a measure of worker confidence—increased for immigrants but declined for the native-born Americans. At 67.2%, the immigrant participation rate in June was 3.8% points above the native-born American rate. ADVANTAGE IMMIGRANTS.

Footnote: the herbivorous Center for Immigration Studies has just released a report, Immigrant Gains and Native Losses In the Job Market, 2000 to 2013,[PDF] which essentially confirms our work since 2004. CIS has a long record of triangulating against VDARE.com and not giving credit to anyone (ask them why not). Nevertheless, we welcome them to the club.