Now that the
election is over, the White House is again hauling out
an unpopular idea it had kept under careful wraps while
the voters were paying attention: amnesty for Mexican illegal
aliens. But new evidence suggests the idea is even worse
than it seemed.
new ambassador to Mexico,
Tony Garza, described to reporters in Mexico City a
rough plan that actually sounds like Rove`s learned a
little about why so many GOP Congressmen
rebelled against his first plan back in the summer
of 2001. This new one is
supposed to be restricted to 15% of the Mexican
illegals, not to let them bring in all of their
relatives, and not to let them have citizenship
(presumably to keep them from
voting against the Republicans).
certainly be less self-destructive than Rove`s old plan.
Clearly, a lot of GOP Representatives have explained to
Rove why amnesty is bad for the Republican Party, such
Mexican-Americans only cast 3.0 percent of the vote
in 2000, according to the
Census Bureau. Some of it appears to have sunk in.
baffling is why Rove (whose "political genius"
reputation got chipped a week ago when he
poured everything the Republicans had into the
Senatorial runoff in Louisiana and suffered an
embarrassing loss) is even bringing it back up at all.
obviously, a limited proposal as the one Garza described
would be seen as an insult by Mexican-American
activists. It would be instantly
topped by the Democrats. Rove would end up in a
bidding war and end up with a huge amnesty like in
1986. What`s the point?
But if Rove
insists on amnesty, the
Public Policy Institute of California has released a
major study that he should ponder. The PPIC does some
tremendous work, although you usually don`t hear much
about it. It often offers up to journalists bland,
don`t-rock-the-boat summaries of its quantitative
investigations. But even though it`s up to you to dig
deeper to find the
hot insights, the PPIC should be praised for being
almost fearless in which topics it investigates.
particular hot insight, found in a report entitled "Understanding
the Future of Californians` Fertility: The Role of
Immigrants“: amnesties have unexpected
repercussions that echo for years. It turns out that
the 1986 amnesty for illegals set off a big baby boom
among its beneficiaries – inevitably worsening the
subsequent crowding in schools and
Hill and Hans P. Johnson of the PPIC
“Between 1987 and 1991, total fertility rates for
foreign-born Hispanics [in California] increased
from 3.2 to 4.4 [expected babies per woman over her
lifetime]. This dramatic rise was the primary force
behind the overall increase in the state`s total
fertility rate during this period. Were it not for the
large increase in fertility among Hispanic immigrants,
fertility rates in California would have increased very
little between 1987 and 1991.
“Why did total fertility rates increase so
dramatically for Hispanic immigrants? First, the
composition of the Hispanic immigrant population in
California changed as a result of the Immigration Reform
and Control Act (IRCA) of 1986. In California alone, 1.6
million unauthorized immigrants applied for amnesty
(legal immigrant status) under this act. The vast
majority were young men, and many were agricultural
workers who settled permanently in the United States.
Previous research indicates that many of those granted
amnesty were joined later by spouses and relatives in
the United States… As a result, many young adult
Hispanic women came to California during the late 1980s.
We also know that unauthorized immigrants tend to have
less education than other immigrants and that they are
more likely to come from rural areas. Both
characteristics are associated with high levels of
fertility. As a result, changes in the composition of
the Hispanic immigration population probably increased
“Another possible reason
for the sudden increase in fertility rates for Hispanic
immigrants is also related to IRCA. Because many of
those granted amnesty and their spouses had been apart
for some time, their reunion in California prompted a
“catch-up” effect in the timing of births…”
Face it Karl: amnesty`s a rotten idea. Now it turns
out to be even rottener.
[Steve Sailer [email
him] is founder of the Human Biodiversity Institute and
December 15, 2002