Is Time On Israel`s Side?
As Israel enters its 61st year, Israelis may look
back with pride. Yet, the realists among them must also
look forward with foreboding.
a modern democracy with the highest standard of
living in the Middle East. In the high-tech industries
of the future, she is in the first rank. From a nation
of fewer than a million in 1948, Israel`s population has
grown to 7 million. In seven wars—the 1948 War of
Independence, the Sinai invasion of 1956, the Six-Day
War of 1967, the Yom Kippur War of 1973, and the Lebanon
wars of 1982 and 2006—Israel has prevailed, though some
of these wars were, as Wellington said of
Waterloo, "a damn near-run thing."
Israel has revived Hebrew, created a new currency,
immersed her children in the history, ancient and
modern, of her people, and established a homeland for
Jews from all over the world, millions of whom have
migrated there to settle. Israel is now home to the
largest concentration of Jews anywhere on earth.
Here, however, we come to the heart of the
Israel became home to the largest Jewish population
on earth in part because American Jews in the 1990s fell
in number from 5.5 million to 5.2 million, a loss of
300,000, or 6 percent of the U.S. Jewish population.
Charles Krauthammer, by 2050, the U.S. Jewish
population will have shrunk another 50 percent to 2.5
million. American Jews are slowly vanishing. How and why
is this happening?
It is the collective decision of American Jews
themselves, who have led the battles for birth control
and a woman`s right to choose.
As Jews were roughly 2 percent of the U.S. population
Roe v. Wade to today, perhaps 2 percent of the 50
million legal abortions since Roe were likely performed
on Jewish girls or women, resulting in 1 million lost
members of the Jewish community in 35 years.
And if demography is destiny, Israel`s future, too,
As former Ambassador Zalman Shoval writes, Israel`s
population of 7 million is 80 percent Jewish. [Israel
celebrates 60 years, Washington Times, May 8,
2008]But the Palestinian population of Israel has risen
to 20 percent and is growing much faster.
One Israel blogger, using Shoval`s totals, writes
that among the Israeli population between 1 and 4 years
old, roughly 30 percent is Arab. The future of Israel is
thus increasingly Arab and less Jewish.
According to the United Nations, by 2050, Israel will
have 10 million people.
By then, the Arab population, at present birth rates,
is likely to be close to 30 percent of the Israeli
population. On the West Bank and Gaza, today`s 4 million
Arabs are to explode to 10 million, far outstripping the
growth in Israel. Jordan`s population of 5 million, 60
percent Palestinian, will also double to 10 million.
Thus, not even counting Palestinians in Lebanon,
Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Syria and the Gulf states, Israel`s
7 million to 8 million Jews in 2050 will be living with
13 million Palestinians in Israel, Jerusalem, Gaza and
the West Bank. If Israel is to survive as a Jewish
state, a separate and independent Palestinian state
would seem an imperative.
Yet, as Israelis continue to build outposts and
expand and add settlements, the possibility of a
Palestinian state recedes. Indeed, many Israelis, seeing
what an end to the occupation produced in Gaza, refuse
to consider any pullout at all from the West Bank.
Such a policy of holding on and digging in is
sometimes the best one—but only if time is on one`s
side. Is time on Israel`s side?
According to the world population statistics from the
National Policy Institute, the worldwide Arabic
population in 1950 was only 94 million, less than 4
percent of the world population. But by 2050, it will be
700 million, 7 percent of a world population of almost
According to U.N. population experts, Lebanon`s
population will grow to 5 million in 2050, but Syria`s
will almost double from today`s 20 million to 34
million. The population of Saudi Arabia will rise from
24 million to 45 million. Egypt will grow by more than
50 million to 121 million Egyptians by 2050. The Islamic
Republic of Iran, 71 million today, is expected to reach
100 million at mid-century.
And, demography aside, the Islamic faith of Israel`s
neighbors is becoming militant. Hamas now controls Gaza.
Hezbollah now controls Southern Lebanon and is becoming
the power in Beirut. While Egypt is headed by a
pro-American autocrat, the principal rival for power is
the widely popular
Those who do not like the Saudi monarchy should
consider what is likely to rise in its place, should the
House of Saud fall.
The same is true of the Jordanian and Moroccan
monarchies, and the sheikdoms, emirates and sultanates
of the Persian Gulf.
In any struggle of generations, the critical question
is often: Whose side is time on? As President Bush
celebrates Israel`s 60th birthday, and is celebrated in
turn as Israel`s best friend ever, it is a fair question
CREATORS SYNDICATE, INC.
Patrick J. Buchanan
no introduction to VDARE.COM readers;
his book State of Emergency: The Third World Invasion and Conquest of America, can be ordered from Amazon.com. His latest book
Hitler, and "The Unnecessary War": How Britain Lost Its
Empire and the West Lost the World,
Paul Craig Roberts.