Hispanic Hype Befuddling GOP

President Bush can explain his Iraq
policies all he wants, but he`ll need more than that to
stay in the White House.

What he needs are called

and in large part because of the kind

immigration policies
the president and his party
have supported, he may not have enough of them to win

Mr. Bush has already

a good part of his conservative base with

for illegal aliens

last January
, and his party has alienated still more
by refusing to support immigration control measures in
either Congress or at the state level.

Then there are the results of
immigration itself—namely, the growing number of
Hispanics who vote, who

vote as a bloc,
and who
do not
and will not vote Republican at all.

Last week Terry McAuliffe, Chairman
of the Democratic National Committee,

a gathering of

Democratic Party
Hispanic activists that John Kerry
can win the election if he has the votes of at least
two-thirds of the 3 million new Hispanic voters
registered since the last election. [McAuliffe:
Hispanics hold White House key,
May 16, 2004,
Associated Press]

In 2000, Al Gore won 65 percent or
so of the

Hispanic vote nationally
, so if Mr. Kerry can keep
that percentage, he`ll win. There`s no reason he
shouldn`t be able to keep it, and there are several
reasons why Mr. Bush won`t.

Moreover, the new voters happen to

in what used to be Republican
strongholds—southwestern states like


, and

New Mexico
. They are all small states with few
electoral votes, (a total of only 17 for the three just
mentioned), but critical in a close election. Mr. Bush
carried two of the above states in 2000 and won the
election by only five electoral votes.

If the

rising Hispanic tide
votes for his adversary this
year in those states, there will be a new president—even
if the old one does win Florida.

Speaking of Florida, Mr. Bush does
better among

Hispanics there
—mainly because the largest single
bloc of Hispanics in the Sunshine State are


economically successful Cubans
who like Republicans.
A recent poll conducted by a

polling firm, Sergio Bendixen and
Associates, shows that while Mr. Kerry is leading among
Hispanic voters in the three key southwestern states,
Mr. Bush leads among Hispanics in Florida—but not with
all of them.

As News Max reported, quoting a
research analyst at the polling firm,


born in Cuba
are supporting Mr. Bush with 80 percent
of the vote, and 12 percent for John Kerry. The U.S.
born [Cubans] are supporting Mr. Kerry with 54 percent,
and only 33 percent for the president."
Bush`s Surprising Latino Draw
May 21, 2004]

In other words, Cubans who
actually experienced communism and who are probably

better off and whiter
, prefer the Republican.
Younger Cubans are more like other Hispanics and prefer
the Democrat.

This trend does not augur well for
Republican command of the Cuban vote—or of the state of
Florida—for the future.

In 2000, Mr. Bush won only a

third of the Hispanic vote nationally
, and he won
that many only because he barely won 50 percent of the
Florida Hispanic vote to Mr. Gore`s 48 percent, and he
won that mainly because Cuban-American voters were angry
with the Democrat over

the Clinton administration`s
policy toward

Elian Gonzalez.

In 1996, Mr. Clinton did unusually
well among Cuban voters in Florida, so they`re a bit
more in play than Republicans and their propagandists
like to think.

The Achilles heel of the Hispanic
vote, for Democrats at least, is that they often

don`t vote
at all. As an official at the DNC told
the Associated Press recently, in California, 3.4
million Hispanics were eligible to vote in California in
2000, but only 1.5 million did—less than half.

Obviously, if it`s in the interest
of the Democrats to get these voters to the polls, it`s
in the interest of the

to keep them away and issue their main
appeal to the

white voters
who are the GOP base.

One difference between the two
parties is that the Democrats learn the obvious
lesson—which is why they push voter registration efforts
for Hispanics—and the Republicans don`t.

Despite the clear pattern over time
that Hispanics support the Democrats and its repetition
every election year, the Republicans cling to the hope
that next year they`ll win Hispanics.

That gives them a plausible excuse
for refusing to control immigration, on the

that doing so would

alienate Hispanics.

Sooner or later even the
Republicans may wake up to the reality that if they do
not start controlling immigration soon, they and
whatever remains of what they purport to believe in will
be swamped by their Democratic rivals riding the

rising Hispanic tide



[Sam Francis [email
him] is a nationally syndicated columnist. A selection
of his columns,

America Extinguished: Mass Immigration And The
Disintegration Of American Culture
, is now available

Americans For Immigration Control.

Click here
for Sam Francis` website. Click

to orderhis monograph
Ethnopolitics: Immigration, Race, and the American
Political Future and
here for
Glynn Custred`s review.