GOP Wins With Sailer Strategy!
the GOP`s tepid showing in the 2000 election, I wrote an
Future Depends on White Vote" that got VDARE.COM
in general and me in particular
banned from FreeRepublic.com, the self-proclaimed
“Premier Conservative News Forum.”
his enforcers apparently thought it was “racist” of me
to point out the indisputable fact that whites cast 81%
of the 2000 vote. I heinously added:
"Here at VDARE, we`ve
repeatedly how dire will be the long-term impact of
immigration on the Republican Party. It`s crucial to
understand, however, that the long-term has not quite
arrived. The GOP [can] save itself by changing
the immigration laws. This can be seen by examining the
2000 election results closely. The reason George W. Bush
struggled so much to eke out a 271-267 win in the
Electoral College…is not that he got crushed in the
minority vote 77% to 21%. No, it`s that he commanded
only a measly 54% of the white vote."
In 2002, I
estimate that voters chose Republican over Democrats
last Tuesday by a
53%-47% margin in the two-party vote. But the
meltdown of the Voter News Service exit polling monopoly
left us without national demographic breakdowns. So
there`s a lot of 99% fact-free spinning aimed at
establishing the conventional wisdom.
really happened: the Republicans, perhaps in spite of
themselves and no doubt benefiting from 9/11, followed
the Sailer Strategy. They
raked in the white votes.
official talk about the necessity of GOP minority
outreach was in effect a smokescreen for the Strategy
that Dare Not Speak Its Name.
banning Dubya, JimBob.
I`ve pieced together.
the Los Angeles Times conducted a full scale
exit poll in California. It explains, as
I reported at length for UPI, why, after Democrat
Gray Davis crushed popular Republican Dan Lungren by 20
percentage points in the 1998 gubernatorial race, the
hapless Bill Simon lost by only five in 2002.
The key to
this surprising near-miss, in the LA Times`
"Extrapolating from the exit polls, the number of
votes cast by minority voters in California plummeted
almost to half of their 1998 level, from 3 million down
to what should turn out to be 1.7 million or 1.8 million
when all the absentee and provisional ballots are
counted. Meanwhile, the total number of white votes
probably will roughly equal the 5.4 million cast in
1998. The minority share of the California electorate
dropped from 36 percent in the 1998 to 24 percent this
year. In turn, the white share rose from 64 percent to
share reportedly fell from 13% to 10%.
Lungren lost to Davis in the 2000 election by 6
percentage points among whites. But Simon beat Davis
among whites by 3 points.
Republicans picked up no ground among Hispanics, despite
George W. Bush`s
much-vaunted popularity with them. Lungren won 23%
of Hispanic voters. Simon won 24%.
In the rest
of the country, there`s only anecdotal data. But it
provides clear evidence that whites turned out in large
numbers and voted enthusiastically for the GOP, while
minority turnout was
New York Times (November 7)
reported that in Georgia,
"the rural white voting base was mobilized this year
as never before….
"While 13,000 fewer voters turned out in the county
with the most black voters, suggesting problems with the
Democratic base, Republicans in Georgia piled up
insurmountable leads in predominantly white rural and
suburban counties. Mr. [Ralph] Reed said
Republicans had to overcome an enormous spending
advantage by [Democratic Governor Roy] Barnes,
who spent more than $19 million, and turned to a huge
grass roots effort. He said the party had enlisted 3,000
volunteers and 500 paid workers who knocked on 150,000
doors in 600 target areas around the state.”
(Significantly, this turnout was largely because of a
National Question issue – the
In the rest
of the South, the New York Times
"In [Alabama and South Carolina], Democrats had
counted on reprising the heavy black voter turnout that
carried [Governor] Siegelman and Gov. Jim Hodges
of South Carolina to victory in 1998. But…while blacks
voted at about the same rate this time in South
Carolina, Democrats said, white voters came out in
greater numbers than expected in suburban and rural
areas for Representative Mark Sanford, the victor in
South Carolina`s gubernatorial contest. "We got 4 out of
10 white votes in 1998," said Dick Harpootlian, the
South Carolina Democratic chairman. "Yesterday, we got 3
of 10 white votes….
"[In Texas] Democrats had predicted that
minority voters would turn out in droves for their
diverse ticket. Minority turnout was up, but turnout in
largely white, Republican suburbs were even higher…
“[Republican Governor Perry] also aired two
controversial advertisements about a 1980`s scandal in
which a savings and loan controlled by Mr. Sanchez was
used by men later identified as Mexican drug dealers to
launder money. Another commercial, released in the final
days of the campaign, linked those drug dealers, and
implicitly Mr. Sanchez, to the murder of a federal drug
agent. Hispanic political leaders and Democrats assailed
the advertisements as racially motivated and too
extreme, but the Perry campaign defended them as
factual. And today, Ms. Weddington, the party
chairwoman, said Mr. Perry`s willingness to be so
"aggressive" late in the campaign helped energize core
the Associated Press
“Tony Sanchez and Ron Kirk
carried heavily Hispanic regions of South Texas in
Tuesday`s elections, but unfortunately for the
Democrats` so-called Dream Team, they were routed by
Republicans everywhere else. Some analysts said minority
turnout fell below Democrats` expectations but that the
party`s strategy of appealing to minority voters is
still valid because of the fast-growing Hispanic
population in Texas. Others, however, warned that
Democrats are having an increasingly difficult job
winning white voters. … The Democratic candidates "were
attractive to black and brown voters, there just weren`t
enough of them," [Professor
Stein of Rice University] said.”
In Florida, according to the New York Times –
"Voter turnout…was remarkably high for a midterm
election: 42.9 percent, up from 36.5 percent in 1998 and
41.5 percent in 1994, according to the Committee for the
Study of the American Electorate, a research group based
in Washington. `Turnout was higher among Republicans
and much lower among Democrats,` [Jim] Kane, [director
of the Florida Voter Poll] said."
for the Sailer Strategy makes it even more important for
Republican mouthpieces to exude flapdoodle about how
huge a help Hispanics were.
Thus Ellen Sorokin, writing
in the Beltway-oriented Washington Times reported
"…Hispanic voters were a driving force behind the
Republicans` historic win of both chambers of Congress,
party officials and political analysts said yesterday. …
Republicans won their seats, with a lot of help from the
["Disillusioned blacks hurt
Democrats" By Ellen Sorokin,
Washington Times, November 7, 2002]
Sorokin`s article goes
on to feature some of the most egregious attempts to
deceive I`ve seen recently. Republican officials must be
desperate if this is the best they can come up with:
(1) "Republican Sen. Wayne Allard, of Colorado, won El
Paso County, which has about 58,400 Hispanics, by 53,445
silly. Of course Allard won by a mile in El Paso County.
It`s home to Colorado Springs, one of the most
Conservative Christian cities in the country. El Paso
County is in Colorado`s 5th Congressional district, in
which Republican Representative Joel Hefley was
re-elected with 83% of the vote in 2000. Only
11.3% of the population is Hispanic, according to
the Census, and maybe they cast 5% or 6 % of the votes
in El Paso. You can`t possibly draw the conclusion that
because a Republican won big there, that Hispanics had
much to do with it.
(2) "In Georgia, Rep. Saxby Chambliss won Gwinnett
County, which has the largest Hispanic population, by
Gwinnett County, in suburban Atlanta, is one of most
famously white Republican
counties in America, the home of Newt Gingrich. Its
Republican Congressman John Linder ran unopposed for
reelection in 2000. It was only
10.9% Hispanic by population in the 2000 Census.
Most of the Hispanics in the South are new immigrants —
few are citizens. I`d be surprised if 3% of the votes in
Gwinnett were cast by Hispanics.
(3) "In North Carolina, Elizabeth H. Dole won Wake
County, the county with the state`s second-largest
Hispanic population by 22,405 voters, the RNC
5.4% Hispanic. Almost all of them are newcomers. I
doubt if Hispanics cast 2% of the votes in Wake.
Washington Times` Sorokin
listed three more substantive possibilities – but
they`re still wrong:
(4) "In Florida, Gov. Jeb Bush was re-elected with
more than 60 percent of the Latino vote."
(a) Who knows? We are being asked to take this on faith.
(b) Florida has many middle class, anti-Communist,
Republican Cuban Hispanics. There`s nothing unusual
about Republicans doing well there. (c) If that
60 percent figure is true, Jeb did about eleven points
over George W.`s share of Florida Hispanics in 2000. But
he did over 13 points better than Dubya among Florida
voters overall. So his Hispanic performance was still
(5) "In New York, Gov. George E. Pataki was re-elected
with nearly 50 percent of the Hispanic vote."
Subsequent estimates put it closer to a third. (NYT
this: Pataki ran so far to the left that he was
endorsed by the New York Times!
Is that what
Beltway “conservatives” (and JimBob) want?
(6) "In Texas, Gov. Rick Perry was re-elected with
more than one-third of the Latino vote, according to
figures compiled by the Republican National Committee [RNC]."
The William Velasquez Institute`s
exit poll of 800 Hispanic voters in Texas found
Perry getting only 13%.
both sides are biased. I wouldn`t trust either. That
said, Perry must have garnered close to 70% of the white
vote. So the gap between whites and Hispanics in Texas
is still huge.
So the Sailer Strategy
worked. All it took was an imminent war – to which
whites responded more patriotically. (Interestingly.)
In the longer term, I am
uncomfortable with the idea of the two major parties
splitting into racial blocs.
But there`s a simple
solution. If you don`t want whites to act like a
minority group – e.g. racially-conscious, bloc-voting,
biased, prickly, led by racial racketeers constantly
proclaiming their group`s victimization – then
the government should stop making whites a minority
through mass immigration.
[Steve Sailer [email
him] is founder of the Human Biodiversity Institute and
November 10, 2002