Election Results Confirm VDARE.COM Analysis—White Still Key To U.S. Elections; Amnesty DOA



Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano

has just given a widely-reported speech announcing a new amnesty
offensive early next year. (Immigrant
Bill Is Back on Table
,
by Melanie Trottman, Wall
Street Journal
, November 14, 2009.)

I say (not
for the first time
): phooey!

Nearly
two weeks have passed since November 3, the fateful night when
two
special gubernatorial elections
in Virginia and New Jersey
sent a

chilling message to the 2010 Democratic candidates.

That gave
me plenty of time to reflect on the
national
significance
, including any possible impact on

amnesty legislation
, those two elections may hold for
Americans.

No sooner
had the polls closed than
President
Barack Obama
put the word out through his press secretary
Robert
Gibbs
that he was

"not watching"

the results and was instead

watching basketball
. [Democrats,
Incumbents Get Wake Up Call
, by Jonathan Harris and John
Martin, Politico.com November 4, 2009]

Given the
thoroughness of the Democratic defeats, that`s impossible to
believe.

And when
you factor in the multiple visits Obama and Vice-President
Joe
Biden
made on behalf of the Democratic candidates New Jersey
incumbent
Jon Corzine
and Virginia`s R. Creigh Deeds, Obama`s
protestations of indifference don`t fly.

Democrats will
continue to argue all day long that the Virginia and New Jersey
results were not a referendum on Obama. The evidence proves
something entirely different.

Most
significantly is that both Republican victories confirmed
VDARE.COM`s long
held view that
whites,
and not minorities, represent the
crucial
voting bloc.

In
Virginia,

Republican Bob McDonnell`s victory
was expected. But

the magnitude
of it of it was not.

The rout
of three Virginia

Democrats
running for three separate statewide offices, as
well as the loss of several legislative seats, sent a clear
anti-Obama (and anti-comprehensive immigration reform) message.
Republicans Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling and Attorney General-elect Ken
Cuccinelli won as comfortably as McDonnell.

Amazingly, and what should strike the most fear in incumbent
Democrats, is that
Independent
voters
(mostly

white
), who helped Obama in 2008 become the first Democratic
presidential candidate in 44 years to carry the Old Dominion,
abandoned the party en masse.

The swing from
Obama`s win last year to McDonnell`s on November 2:
a negative
23 points
!

In the
Virginia House of Delegates, the Republicans also registered
significant gains,

winning
at least five additional seats.

Immigration was not
a high visibility issue in the Virginia election.

Nevertheless, McConnell`s
traditional
Republican position
on immigration—that federal laws

should be enforced
and

illegal aliens deported
—no doubt gave him a boost at the
polling both.

In some ways, the
Republicans` New Jersey triumph was even more noteworthy than
Virginia`s.

Winner Chris
Christie`s skill at overcoming the Democratic majority of
750,000 registered voters is the least of the surprises.

Led by
two of the country`s most enthusiastic immigration enthusiast
Senators (Frank
Lautenberg
and

Robert Menendez
), and represented by seven (of 10) in the
U.S. House of Representatives who have

D- or lower grades
, Corzine, their former colleague, had
worn out his welcome.

Curiously, and to his detriment,

Corzine
moved to the left on immigration after leaving the
Senate. Corzine,

grade "C,"
was
good on eliminating unnecessary foreign worker visas, strong on
interior enforcement and border control but bad on amnesties and
other related alien benefits.

Consistent with Corzine`s pro-amnesty Senate agenda is that two
of his most
controversial positions
as governor were to give
driver`s
licenses
and
in-state
tuition
to illegal aliens, both failed proposals that were
highly unpopular with New Jersey voters.

Here`s
what you can take from the elections: they are predictable
indicators of

populist anger
that will be directed at any incumbent but
disproportionately at the Democrats since they`re the party in
power. Promised changes have not been fulfilled.

Deeds and
Corzine retained commanding

support among blacks
and Hispanics. But each only won about
one-third of white voters, much less than Obama garnered in
those states one year ago.

In a
recent essay, political analyst

Ronald Brownstein
pointed out that:

"Deeds
and Corzine each won fewer than three in 10 whites without a
college education, and just one-third of white seniors…and
that both lost whites under 30, and received less than 30
percent of the vote among white independents and less than 40
percent among college-educated whites."

Brownstein
concluded that the results:


"Parallel national
polls showing most whites moving toward a Ross Perot-like
skepticism about Washington, even as minorities express more
comfort with an enlarged federal role. That divergence looms as
an ominously destabilizing force."

[Pols
Stand on Unstable Ground
,
by Ronald Brownstein, National Journal, November 7, 2009]

If "national polls" show
that
white voters
broadly reject Democrats, liberal candidates
should expect sleepless nights.

For
Republicans, on the other hand, Virginia and New Jersey provided
a breath of much needed fresh air that might also extend out
across
GOP-land
nationwide.

Virginia`s specific lesson is that Republicans can nominate
a staunch
conservative
like McDonnell and win as long as he projects a
mainstream image and agenda.

And few
issues these days are more mainstream than
patriotic
immigration reform
and

an immigration moratorium
.

Post-New Jersey and
Virginia, moderate and conservative Democrats certainly must
realize the box they are in.

They just
learned that even a popular president, as the

MainStream Media insists
that Obama is, doesn`t have
coattails in this economy.

Those
candidates will have to somehow reach out to their Democratic
base (minorities) while attracting

disenfranchised, middle class, white, Independents.
The best
way to do that, although it`s a tall order, is to ask Obama to
stay home at the
White House.

Each vote
Democratic incumbents make between now and November 2010 will be
a

double-edged sword
: Vote for controversial and unpopular
programs like

Obamacare
and amnesty to curry favor with the party`s core
constituents but alienate the Independent, white voters needed
to win.

The
extended and possibly endless Congressional debate about
H.R.
3962
, now acknowledged by
Senate
Majority Leader Harry Reid
to go into 2010, has served us
well. As long as Congress remains focused on

Obamacare
,
no
amnesty legislation
will reach the floor.

Of all
the vulnerable incumbents,
Reid,
with the

Nevada economy
in the tank, is highest on the list. But he
is followed closely by Connecticut`s immigration enthusiast
Christopher Dodd. [Election
Puts 10 Democrats on High Alert,
by Jonathan Allen and Manu
Raju, Politico.com November 5, 2010]

But let`s
assume the worst: the Senate and the House come to terms and
pass
Obamacare
in February or March.

That
would leave a tiny window in the spring for an amnesty bill to
be written, debated and voted on. More of a delay would mean the
Congressional summer recess will have started, followed by
earnest campaigning in the fall, hardly the atmosphere for a
contentious amnesty debate that would make the dissent over
Obamacare
look like a

day at the beach
. (Listen to one-note

Congressman Luis Gutierrez
whine about the lack of amnesty`s
progress

here
.)

Ask yourself this
question: If you were a Congressional candidate facing a tough
reelection campaign, would you base your platform on amnesty?

If you`re firmly on
the radical Left, you might answer
"yes"

But

moderate Democrats
, reviewing the Virginia and New Jersey
results are racing to the center where amnesty has gotten
more
toxic
over the past months.

Their
response will be a firm
"no"

That
scenario would push the

"path to citizenship"
out to at least to early 2011 when, because of continued
unemployment and citizen resistance to rewarding lawbreakers,
voter`s resistance to amnesty will have intensified.

But, and this is
the best news of all, if everything unfolds as I predict, in
2011 Republicans will control Congress and amnesty for illegal
aliens will be a non-starter.

If we`re
really lucky, Reid will be working as
a
greeter
at a
Las Vegas
hotel!

Joe Guzzardi
[email
him] is a California native
who recently fled the state because of over-immigration,
over-population and a rapidly deteriorating quality of life. He
has moved to Pittsburgh, PA where the air is clean and the
growth rate stable. A
long-time instructor in English at the Lodi Adult School,
Guzzardi has been writing a weekly column since 1988. It
currently appears in the


Lodi News-Sentinel.