Election Results Confirm VDARE.COM Analysis—White Still Key To U.S. Elections; Amnesty DOA
Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano
has just given a widely-reported speech announcing a new amnesty
offensive early next year. (Immigrant
Bill Is Back on Table,
by Melanie Trottman, Wall
Street Journal, November 14, 2009.)
I say (not
for the first time): phooey!
two weeks have passed since November 3, the fateful night when
special gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey
chilling message to the 2010 Democratic candidates.
had the polls closed than
Barack Obama put the word out through his press secretary
Gibbs that he was
the results and was instead
watching basketball. [Democrats,
Incumbents Get Wake Up Call, by Jonathan Harris and John
Martin, Politico.com November 4, 2009]
thoroughness of the Democratic defeats, that`s impossible to
you factor in the multiple visits Obama and Vice-President
Biden made on behalf of the Democratic candidates New Jersey
Jon Corzine and Virginia`s R. Creigh Deeds, Obama`s
protestations of indifference don`t fly.
continue to argue all day long that the Virginia and New Jersey
results were not a referendum on Obama. The evidence proves
something entirely different.
of three Virginia
Democrats running for three separate statewide offices, as
well as the loss of several legislative seats, sent a clear
anti-Obama (and anti-comprehensive immigration reform) message.
Republicans Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling and Attorney General-elect Ken
Cuccinelli won as comfortably as McDonnell.
Amazingly, and what should strike the most fear in incumbent
Democrats, is that
white), who helped Obama in 2008 become the first Democratic
presidential candidate in 44 years to carry the Old Dominion,
abandoned the party en masse.
The swing from
Obama`s win last year to McDonnell`s on November 2:
Virginia House of Delegates, the Republicans also registered
winning at least five additional seats.
Immigration was not
a high visibility issue in the Virginia election.
In some ways, the
Republicans` New Jersey triumph was even more noteworthy than
Christie`s skill at overcoming the Democratic majority of
750,000 registered voters is the least of the surprises.
two of the country`s most enthusiastic immigration enthusiast
Robert Menendez), and represented by seven (of 10) in the
U.S. House of Representatives who have
D- or lower grades, Corzine, their former colleague, had
worn out his welcome.
Curiously, and to his detriment,
Corzine moved to the left on immigration after leaving the
grade "C," was
good on eliminating unnecessary foreign worker visas, strong on
interior enforcement and border control but bad on amnesties and
other related alien benefits.
Consistent with Corzine`s pro-amnesty Senate agenda is that two
of his most
controversial positions as governor were to give
tuition to illegal aliens, both failed proposals that were
highly unpopular with New Jersey voters.
what you can take from the elections: they are predictable
populist anger that will be directed at any incumbent but
disproportionately at the Democrats since they`re the party in
power. Promised changes have not been fulfilled.
Corzine retained commanding
support among blacks and Hispanics. But each only won about
one-third of white voters, much less than Obama garnered in
those states one year ago.
recent essay, political analyst
Ronald Brownstein pointed out that:
and Corzine each won fewer than three in 10 whites without a
college education, and just one-third of white seniors…and
that both lost whites under 30, and received less than 30
percent of the vote among white independents and less than 40
percent among college-educated whites."
concluded that the results:
polls showing most whites moving toward a Ross Perot-like
skepticism about Washington, even as minorities express more
comfort with an enlarged federal role. That divergence looms as
an ominously destabilizing force."
Stand on Unstable Ground,
by Ronald Brownstein, National Journal, November 7, 2009]
If "national polls" show
white voters broadly reject Democrats, liberal candidates
should expect sleepless nights.
Republicans, on the other hand, Virginia and New Jersey provided
a breath of much needed fresh air that might also extend out
Virginia`s specific lesson is that Republicans can nominate
conservative like McDonnell and win as long as he projects a
mainstream image and agenda.
Post-New Jersey and
Virginia, moderate and conservative Democrats certainly must
realize the box they are in.
learned that even a popular president, as the
MainStream Media insists that Obama is, doesn`t have
coattails in this economy.
candidates will have to somehow reach out to their Democratic
base (minorities) while attracting
disenfranchised, middle class, white, Independents. The best
way to do that, although it`s a tall order, is to ask Obama to
stay home at the
Democratic incumbents make between now and November 2010 will be
double-edged sword: Vote for controversial and unpopular
Obamacare and amnesty to curry favor with the party`s core
constituents but alienate the Independent, white voters needed
extended and possibly endless Congressional debate about
3962, now acknowledged by
Majority Leader Harry Reid to go into 2010, has served us
well. As long as Congress remains focused on
amnesty legislation will reach the floor.
the vulnerable incumbents,
Nevada economy in the tank, is highest on the list. But he
is followed closely by Connecticut`s immigration enthusiast
Christopher Dodd. [Election
Puts 10 Democrats on High Alert, by Jonathan Allen and Manu
Raju, Politico.com November 5, 2010]
assume the worst: the Senate and the House come to terms and
Obamacare in February or March.
would leave a tiny window in the spring for an amnesty bill to
be written, debated and voted on. More of a delay would mean the
Congressional summer recess will have started, followed by
earnest campaigning in the fall, hardly the atmosphere for a
contentious amnesty debate that would make the dissent over
look like a
day at the beach. (Listen to one-note
Congressman Luis Gutierrez whine about the lack of amnesty`s
Ask yourself this
question: If you were a Congressional candidate facing a tough
reelection campaign, would you base your platform on amnesty?
If you`re firmly on
the radical Left, you might answer
response will be a firm
scenario would push the
"path to citizenship"
out to at least to early 2011 when, because of continued
unemployment and citizen resistance to rewarding lawbreakers,
voter`s resistance to amnesty will have intensified.
But, and this is
the best news of all, if everything unfolds as I predict, in
2011 Republicans will control Congress and amnesty for illegal
aliens will be a non-starter.
him] is a California native
who recently fled the state because of over-immigration,
over-population and a rapidly deteriorating quality of life. He
has moved to Pittsburgh, PA where the air is clean and the
growth rate stable. A
long-time instructor in English at the Lodi Adult School,
Guzzardi has been writing a weekly column since 1988. It
currently appears in the