Demography No Laughing Matter in Russia
In Russia`s Ulanovsk region, Sept. 12 is Conception
Workers are given the day off, and encouraged to go
home and do their best to conceive a new Russian. The
hope is to have a bumper crop of babies on Russia`s
national holiday, nine months off.
Two decades ago, the Soviet Union was three times the
size of any of the other giant nation—the United States,
Canada, China, Brazil—and the third most populous, with
nearly 300 million people. Came then the great crack-up
The Baltic republics—Lithuania, Latvia and
Estonia—broke free first. Next were Belarus, Ukraine
and Moldova in the west; Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan
in the Caucasus; and Turkmenistan, Tajikistan,
Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan in Central Asia.
These amputations removed a third of the territory
and half the population of the Soviet Union. Yet the
remnant, Russia, remained twice as large as any other
nation and still boasted a population of 150 million.
Since the 1990s, however, Russia has been losing
population at a rate of 750,000 a year—not to
emigration, but to death. By one count, the Russian
population is down to 143 million. President Putin has
predicted that only 124 million Russians will be alive
in 2015. In 2000, the United Nations projected that, at
its present birth rate, by 2050 Russia`s population
would fall to 114 million.
In a 2005 study, the United Nations estimated that,
together, Ukraine and Russia will lose 50 million
people—25 percent of their combined populations—by
mid-century. The Slavs are dying out, and the
geostrategic implications are enormous.
In a few decades, Turkey, which seeks entry into the
European Union, will become Europe`s most populous
Xerxes` bridge of boats across the Hellespont,
Turkey will be the
Asian land bridge into Europe, the Bridge of The
Prophet into the
homeland of the Christians.
As critical, the vast majority of Russians live west
of the Urals, while east of Novosibirsk (New Siberia
City), all the way to Kamchatka, the tiny Russian
population is departing or dying out. Yet, in timber,
oil and minerals, this is the most resource-rich region
on earth. And south of Siberia lies
the most populous and resource-hungry nation on
American children born today may have Chinese for
neighbors across the Bering Strait from Alaska.
Americans of European ancestry are also declining as
a share of the U.S. population, down from near 90
percent into 1960 to 66 percent today. Anglos, as they
are called now, are now minorities in our two largest
states, Texas and California, and, by 2040, will be a
minority in the nation that people of British and
European stock built.
And immigrants and their children will constitute 105
million of that 167 million. That would be triple the
37.5 million legal and illegal immigrants here today,
which is itself the largest cohort of foreigners any
nation has ever taken in.
With the 45 million Hispanics here to rise to 102
million by 2050, the Southwest is likely to
look and sound more like Mexico than America.
will be a part of Mexico.
Like Russians, Americans of European ancestry are
failing to reproduce. Yet, a closer look reveals that
population growth remains healthy among the religiously
the secularists, however, birth rates are far below
Zero Population Growth—and the possibility of extinction
One recent study found that the
Jewish population in the United States fell by 6
percent in the 1990s, from 5.5 million to 5.2 million.
Orthodox Jews, however, are known for families of five,
eight or 10 children.
"And God blessed them, and God said unto them, Be
fruitful, and multiply, and replenish the earth, and
have dominion … over every living creature." So
Genesis. And so European Man once preached and
practiced. But having lost his empires along with his
faith, European Man no longer sees himself as
commissioned by God.
Indeed, he no longer believes in God. Among our best
and brightest are many whose purpose is to enjoy life to
the fullest and to end it, when the time comes, as
painlessly as possible.
Which seems to suit the rest of the world—China,
India, Islam, Africa, Latin America—fine, as all
look forward to a magnificent inheritance.
If demography is destiny, the West is finished. And,
if so, does it really matter all that much who rules in
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