Apr 28, 09:30 AM — 24% Opt Out of a Clinton-Trump Race - Demographic Details Nearly one-in-four voters say they will stay home or vote third party if Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are the major party presidential candidates. Among all Likely U.S. Voters, Trump and Clinton are tied at 38% each. But 16% say they would vote for some other candidate if the presidential election comes down to those two, while six percent (6%) would stay home. Only two percent (2%) are undecided given those options [ = 24%]. If Trump is the Republican nominee, 16% of GOP voters say they would choose a third-party candidate, while five percent (5%) would stay home. Sixty-six percent (66%) would vote for Trump, but 10% would vote for Clinton instead. If Clinton is the Democratic nominee, 11% of Democrats would vote third-party, while three percent (3%) would stay home. Seventy-five percent (75%) would support the nominee, but 11% say they would vote for Trump. [Emphasis added].Note that a strikingly significant number of Democrats (11%) compared to Republicans (16%) say they will vote for a Third Party if their party's front-runner prevails.
Rasmussen is one of the few polls that reports its results by race, although all of them must adjust for race internally, but you can only get to the "demographic details" if you are a Rasmussen "platinum subscriber."
Trump gets 43% of the white Likely Voters vs. 34% for Clinton, which is rather low even if you add another 11% or so on the assumption that he'll get half the Third Party tantrum-thowers, Stay-Homers and Not Surers if they ultimately vote. But even more surprising, Trump gets 15% of blacks (vs. 6% for Romney in 2012).
This isn't the first time that Rasmussen has shown serious Trump strength against Clinton with the aid of black votes. I don't know what it means, although e.g. born-again Trump sympathizer Roger L. Simon has just daringly opined How Trump Can Win the Black Vote to Win the Election (pjmedia, April 27 2016). But why not report it?
