Prediction Markets Find Trump And Biden Most Electable
Default author
September 13, 2015, 06:57 PM
Print Friendly and PDF
predictwiseAccording to odds from, Biden and Trump are the most electable candidates from each major party. is a project of Microsoft Research that takes data from a variety of prediction markets and bookie joints and compiles them into a uniform format.

I took their odds of election of president divided by their odds of getting a major party nomination to measure the electability of each candidate or the chance they would be elected if nominated. Given some of Trump's statements on immigration, this may be setting to rest the myth that opposition to immigration is the third rail of American politics.

Candidate Presidential odds % Nomination odds % Electability %
Biden 7 12 58.3
Bush 17 38 45.9
Clinton 41 71 57.7
Kasich 3 7 42.8
Rubio 6.5 14 46.4
Sanders 6 13 46.1
Trump 8 14 57.1
Walker 3 9 33.3