The CDC has released its preliminary report on births in 2014:
National Vital Statistics Reports
Volume 64, Number 6 June 17, 2015
Births: Preliminary Data for 2014The preliminary number of births for the United States in 2014 was 3,985,924, an increase of 1% (or 53,743 births) from 2013 (3,932,181) (Tables 1 and 2 and Figure 2) (2). This is the first increase in births since 2007, ending the recent downward trend. The number of births declined steadily from 2007 through 2010, but the pace of decline slowed from 2010 through 2013.The number of births increased 1% for women in each of the three largest race and Hispanic origin groups (non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic black, and Hispanic) from 2013 to 2014 (2). %Births to Asian or Pacific Islander (API) women increased 6% in 2014
, whereas births to American Indian or Alaska Native (AIAN) women decreased 2%.
During the Bush Mortgage Bubble, a.k.a., The Idiocracy Era
, there was an explosion in births to unmarried women, especially Hispanic ones, while births to white married women stagnated. Since the economic collapse, the quantity of births dropped sharply although the quality stabilized
Now we seem to be entering a new era, in which the big winners appear likely to be Asians.
This reminds me of a prediction one of my Jewish readers made about a half decade ago. She forecasted that by 2050 or so, New York City would be dominated by Chinese. The first first full-blown Jewish mayor of New York City was Abraham Beame, elected in 1973. (La Guardia in the 1930s was half Jewish ethnically.) Since then, Jews have been mayor 24 out of 41 years. But, she said, looking around at New York City today, the city keeps quietly filling up with hard-working, successful Chinese. And there are a lot more where they came from. At present, they mostly just keep their heads down and make money, but in a generation or two there will be a lot more of them.
In contrast, African-Americans and Hispanics are likely to be increasingly squeezed out of expensive cities by their inability to make enough money.