Earlier: ”Track and Battlefield”: Sailer and Seiler on Women in Combat from 1997
With the Olympics coming up this summer in Paris only three years after the COVID-delayed Olympics in Tokyo, here’s a preprint attempting to debunk my arguments, going back to 1997, that Olympic running performance is related to human biodiversity.
Revisiting Stereotypes: Race and Running
Tade Souaiaiaa, Nabie Fofanah, Rawle De Lisle and Sheena Mason
The athletic achievements of African athletes in global running championships have long been subject to scientific and sociological inquiry. During the 1990s, a popular narrative emerged, suggesting that West African lineage conferred inherent sprinting advantages, and that North, South and East African’s are specialized for longer distances. Part and parcel to this narrative was the enthusiastic belief that it would very soon be substantiated by a genotyping revolution that would enable prognostication of individual athletic potential.
We revisit this hypothesis in the post-genomic era. First, we compare the global running records used to generate the racialist hypotheses with performances over the last twenty years (2004-2023). Focusing on the 100m reveals intriguing trends, including the ascendancy of Jamaica as a sprint powerhouse and the elevation of South African and East Asian sprinters to the global stage, a direct challenge to the racialist paradigm. In line with an in-depth analysis of the influences on elite runners, we build a regression model to predict 100m performance based on environmental and psychological factors.
Next, we direct our attention to 1500m, where the last two British champions have been part of a European resurgence that hasn’t been seen in decades. Examining three different time periods, we identify a thirty year national slowdown (1989-2018). Adapting our model to this time period reveals striking evidence that racial perception has greater impact on performance than racial physiology.
Synthesizing these findings, we introduce a psychocultural hypothesis, positing that interactions between racial perceptions and social dynamics shape the global distribution of running performance. We contrast this hypothesis with the racialist paradigm and propose extending it beyond sport where it offers insight across many domains.
The argument here is basically that if Nature can’t be proved beyond a shadow of a doubt to determine 100% of running results, then Nurture must be 100% responsible and race plays no role whatsoever other than stereotype threat.
Personally, I’ve always argued for the interplay of nature and nurture, but the authors and their friends appear to be convinced that that’s cheating: You’ve got to pick one and only one: nature or nurture? Which is it?
As I may have mentioned once or twice over the decades and millennia, in the race for the World’s Fastest Man, the Olympic 100m dash, the eight finalists have been extraordinarily sub-Saharan by ancestry going back to the 1984 Los Angeles Olympics. At present, 79 of the last 80 finalists across the last ten Olympics have had at least one parent of primarily sub-Saharan ancestry.
On the other hand, a Chinese guy, Su Bingtian, broke that streak in 2021 by not just qualifying but winning his semifinal with a 9.83, using a spectacular start and then grimly muscling his way over the finish line in first:
And the fellow who almost caught him in the semi and won gold in the final with a 9.80, Lamont Marcell Jacobs, has an African American dad but a white mom.
So it could be that sprinting is getting slightly more diverse.
But still… 79 out of 80.
Most of the arguments the authors come up with are either ones that I’ve come up with too, or direct analogies. For example, they argue that countries go through cycles of greatness, such as British middle distance champions Steve Ovett, Sebastian Coe, and Steve Cram in the 1980s, or, with perhaps excessive enthusiasm, the British “Return to Greatness” in the mile since 2019.
I could well believe that an efflorescence of competition could egg runners on to great performances, as in Britain in the 1980s, whereas a decline in competition could sap times, as in America in the same era. Likewise, I wrote in 2004:
Why don’t American distance runners run as fast as they once did? It appears to be an instructive interaction of nature and nurture.
The decline has been absolute, not just relative to the rest of the world. From 1965 through 1967, three American high school boys (Jim Ryun [now a GOP Congressman from Kansas], Marty Liquori, and Tim Danielson) ran the mile in under four minutes. It didn’t happen again until Alan Webb did it in 2001. I suspect that what took the air out of the American middle distance balloon was Kenyan Kip Keino beating Ryun at Mexico City in the 1500m in 1968. This was at high altitude, where Keino was at home, so it didn’t seem so bad at first, but then the Kenyans just kept on winning. A huge boom in recreational distance running started in America in 1972 when Frank Shorter won the Olympic Marathon, but it didn’t lead to a new generation of world-class runners. The top endurance talent must have gone into mountain climbing or triathlons or bicycle racing or something else where they didn’t have to
compete with the Kenyans.
Anyway, here are currently the 100 fastest marathon runners of all time. The authors decline to consider marathon running for reasons. But it looks pretty informative to me:
Competitor DOB Nat Ethnicity Kelvin KIPTUM 02 Dec 1999 KEN Eliud KIPCHOGE 05 Nov 1984 KEN Kenenisa BEKELE 13 Jun 1982 ETH Sisay LEMMA 12 Dec 1990 ETH Benson KIPRUTO 17 Mar 1991 KEN Birhanu LEGESE 11 Sep 1994 ETH Mosinet GEREMEW 12 Feb 1992 ETH Timothy KIPLAGAT 18 Sep 1993 KEN Dennis KIMETTO 22 Apr 1984 KEN Evans CHEBET 10 Nov 1988 KEN Gabriel Gerald GEAY 10 Sep 1996 TAN Lawrence CHERONO 07 Aug 1988 KEN Alexander Mutiso MUNYAO 10 Sep 1996 KEN Emmanuel MUTAI 12 Oct 1984 KEN Wilson Kipsang KIPROTICH 15 Mar 1982 KEN Amos KIPRUTO 16 Sep 1992 KEN Vincent Kipkemoi NGETICH 03 Jan 1999 KEN Mule WASIHUN 20 Oct 1993 ETH Tadese TAKELE 03 Aug 2002 ETH Deresa GELETA ETH Getaneh MOLLA 10 Jan 1994 ETH Bashir ABDI 10 Feb 1989 BEL Somali Patrick Makau MUSYOKI 02 Mar 1985 KEN Tamirat TOLA 11 Aug 1991 ETH Herpasa NEGASA 11 Sep 1993 ETH Guye Idemo ADOLA 20 Oct 1990 ETH Morhad AMDOUNI 21 Jun 1988 FRA Tunisian Dawit WOLDE 19 May 1991 ETH Stanley Kipleting BIWOTT 21 Apr 1986 KEN Kinde ATANAW 15 Apr 1993 ETH Reuben Kiprop KIPYEGO 21 Aug 1996 KEN Haile GEBRSELASSIE 18 Apr 1973 ETH Leul GEBRESILASE 20 Sep 1992 ETH Marius KIPSEREM 17 May 1988 KEN Asefa MENGSTU 22 Jan 1988 ETH Bernard Kiprop KOECH 31 Jan 1988 KEN Geoffrey MUTAI 07 Oct 1981 KEN Kaan Kigen ÖZBILEN 15 Jan 1986 TUR Kenyan Barnabas KIPTUM 08 Dec 1986 KEN Joshua BELET 10 Feb 1998 KEN Elisha ROTICH 12 Apr 1990 KEN Ronald KORIR 10 Apr 1991 KEN Ayele ABSHERO 28 Dec 1990 ETH Geoffrey KAMWOROR 22 Nov 1992 KEN Tesfaye ABERA 31 Mar 1992 ETH Duncan KIBET 25 Apr 1978 KEN James Kipsang KWAMBAI 28 Feb 1983 KEN Sammy KITWARA 26 Nov 1986 KEN Vincent KIPCHUMBA 03 Aug 1990 KEN Seifu TURA 19 Jun 1997 ETH Tsegaye MEKONNEN 15 Jun 1995 ETH Dickson CHUMBA 27 Oct 1986 KEN Jonathan Kipleting KORIR 20 Nov 1986 KEN Hayle LEMI 13 Sep 1994 ETH CyBrian KOTUT 06 Jun 1992 KEN Hiskel TEWELDE 15 Sep 1986 ERI Bethwel KIBET 04 Aug 1991 KEN Tsegaye KEBEDE 15 Jan 1987 ETH Solomon DEKSISA 11 Mar 1994 ETH Hailemaryam KIROS 05 Feb 1997 ETH Haftu TEKLU 21 Jan 2000 ETH El Hassan EL ABBASSI 13 Apr 1984 BRN Moroccan Asrar HIYRDEN 25 Nov 1999 ETH Hillary KIPSAMBU 04 Feb 1985 KEN Andualem BELAY 05 Apr 1992 ETH Lelisa DESISA 14 Jan 1990 ETH Titus EKIRU 02 Jan 1992 KEN Mekuant AYENEW 24 Oct 1991 ETH Yemane TSEGAY 08 Apr 1985 ETH Berhanu SHIFERAW 31 May 1993 ETH Barselius KIPYEGO 22 Jul 1993 KEN Stephen KISSA 01 Dec 1988 UGA Kibiwott KANDIE 20 Jun 1996 KEN Tadesse TOLA 31 Oct 1987 ETH Shura KITATA 09 Jun 1996 ETH Tsegaye GETACHEW 30 Nov 1996 ETH Dino SEFIR 28 May 1988 ETH Getu FELEKE 28 Nov 1986 ETH Abebe NEGEWO 20 May 1984 ETH Daniel DO NASCIMENTO 28 Jul 1998 BRA Black Brazilian Feyisa LILESA 01 Feb 1990 ETH Endeshaw NEGESSE 13 Mar 1988 ETH Kenneth Kiprop KIPKEMOI 02 Aug 1984 KEN Mathew Kipkoech KISORIO 16 May 1989 KEN Chalu DESO 14 Dec 1997 ETH Abayneh DEGU 01 Dec 1998 ETH Brimin KIPKORIR 1989 KEN Gashau AYALE 22 Aug 1996 ISR Ethiopian Markos GENETI 07 Jun 1984 ETH Titus KIPRUTO 25 Jun 1998 KEN Paul TERGAT 17 Jun 1969 KEN Sammy Kipchoge KORIR 12 Dec 1971 KEN Jonathan MAIYO 05 May 1988 KEN Kengo SUZUKI 11 Jun 1995 JPN Japanese Abdi NAGEEYE 02 Mar 1989 NED Somali Philemon KIPLIMO 10 Oct 1998 KEN Bazezew ASMARE 11 Sep 1996 ETH Amanal PETROS 17 May 1995 GER Eritrean Gadisa BIRHANU 15 Sep 1992 ETH Philemon RONO 08 Feb 1991 KEN
It appears to be 1 Japanese, 1 black Brazilian, 2 North Africans, and a whole bunch of East Africans, almost all of them Kenyans or Ethiopians. Among the top 100 all-time marathoners, there are 46 running for Ethiopia and 44 running for Kenya.
What about among the top 100 100-meter men?
| Mark | WIND | Competitor | DOB | Nat | Ethnicity |
| 9.58 | 0.9 | Usain BOLT | 21 Aug 1986 | JAM | Caribbean Black |
| 9.69 | 2 | Tyson GAY | 09 Aug 1982 | USA | African-American |
| 9.69 | -0.1 | Yohan BLAKE | 26 Dec 1989 | JAM | Caribbean Black |
| 9.72 | 0.2 | Asafa POWELL | 23 Nov 1982 | JAM | Caribbean Black |
| 9.74 | 0.9 | Justin GATLIN | 10 Feb 1982 | USA | African-American |
| 9.76 | 0.6 | Christian COLEMAN | 06 Mar 1996 | USA | African-American |
| 9.76 | 1.2 | Trayvon BROMELL | 10 Jul 1995 | USA | African-American |
| 9.76 | 1.4 | Fred KERLEY | 07 May 1995 | USA | African-American |
| 9.77 | 1.2 | Ferdinand OMANYALA | 02 Jan 1996 | KEN | Luhya Bantu |
| 9.78 | 0.9 | Nesta CARTER | 11 Oct 1985 | JAM | Caribbean Black |
| 9.79 | 0.1 | Maurice GREENE | 23 Jul 1974 | USA | African-American |
| 9.8 | 1.3 | Steve MULLINGS | 29 Nov 1982 | JAM | Caribbean Black |
| 9.8 | 0.1 | Lamont Marcell JACOBS | 26 Sep 1994 | ITA | White and African-American |
| 9.82 | 1.7 | Richard THOMPSON | 07 Jun 1985 | TTO | Caribbean Black |
| 9.83 | 0.9 | Bingtian SU | 29 Aug 1989 | CHN | Chinese |
| 9.83 | 0.9 | Ronnie BAKER | 15 Oct 1993 | USA | African-American |
| 9.83 | 1.3 | Zharnel HUGHES | 13 Jul 1995 | GBR | Caribbean Black |
| 9.83 | 0 | Noah LYLES | 18 Jul 1997 | USA | African-American |
| 9.84 | 0.7 | Donovan BAILEY | 16 Dec 1967 | CAN | Caribbean Black |
| 9.84 | 0.2 | Bruny SURIN | 12 Jul 1967 | CAN | Caribbean Black |
| 9.84 | 1.2 | Akani SIMBINE | 21 Sep 1993 | RSA | Southern African |
| 9.85 | 1.2 | Leroy BURRELL | 21 Feb 1967 | USA | African-American |
| 9.85 | 1.7 | Olusoji Adetokunbo FASUBA | 09 Jul 1984 | NGR | West African |
| 9.85 | 1.3 | Michael RODGERS | 24 Apr 1985 | USA | African-American |
| 9.85 | 1.5 | Marvin BRACY | 15 Dec 1993 | USA | African-American |
| 9.85 | 0.4 | Kishane THOMPSON | 17 Jul 2001 | JAM | Caribbean Black |
| 9.86 | 1.2 | Carl LEWIS | 01 Jul 1961 | USA | African-American |
| 9.86 | -0.4 | Frank FREDERICKS | 02 Oct 1967 | NAM | Southwest African |
| 9.86 | 1.8 | Ato BOLDON | 30 Dec 1973 | TTO | Caribbean Black |
| 9.86 | 0.6 | Francis OBIKWELU | 22 Nov 1978 | POR | West African |
| 9.86 | 1.4 | Keston BLEDMAN | 08 Mar 1988 | TTO | Caribbean Black |
| 9.86 | 1.3 | Jimmy VICAUT | 27 Feb 1992 | FRA | White and West African |
| 9.86 | 0.8 | Divine ODUDURU | 07 Oct 1996 | NGR | West African |
| 9.86 | 1.6 | Michael NORMAN | 03 Dec 1997 | USA | African-American |
| 9.86 | 0.2 | Oblique SEVILLE | 16 Mar 2001 | JAM | Caribbean Black |
| 9.86 | 0.7 | Micah WILLIAMS | 12 Nov 2001 | USA | African-American |
| 9.87 | 0.3 | Linford CHRISTIE | 02 Apr 1960 | GBR | Caribbean Black |
| 9.87 | -0.2 | Obadele THOMPSON | 30 Mar 1976 | BAR | Caribbean Black |
| 9.88 | 1.8 | Shawn CRAWFORD | 14 Jan 1978 | USA | African-American |
| 9.88 | 1 | Walter DIX | 31 Jan 1986 | USA | African-American |
| 9.88 | 0.9 | Ryan BAILEY | 13 Apr 1989 | USA | African-American |
| 9.88 | 1 | Michael FRATER | 06 Oct 1982 | JAM | Caribbean Black |
| 9.88 | 0 | Letsile TEBOGO | 07 Jun 2003 | BOT | Southern African |
| 9.89 | 1.6 | Travis PADGETT | 13 Dec 1986 | USA | African-American |
| 9.89 | 1.6 | Darvis PATTON | 04 Dec 1977 | USA | African-American |
| 9.89 | 1.3 | Ngonidzashe MAKUSHA | 11 Mar 1987 | ZIM | Southern African |
| 9.89 | 0.2 | Isiah YOUNG | 05 Jan 1990 | USA | African-American |
| 9.89 | 0.8 | Kenneth BEDNAREK | 14 Oct 1998 | USA | African-American |
| 9.89 | 0.1 | Andre DE GRASSE | 10 Nov 1994 | CAN | Caribbean Black |
| 9.89 | 1 | Ackeem BLAKE | 21 Jan 2002 | JAM | Caribbean Black |
| 9.89 | 1.3 | Pjai AUSTIN | 19 Sep 2000 | USA | African-American |
| 9.89 | 1.8 | Courtney LINDSEY | 18 Nov 1998 | USA | African-American |
| 9.89 | 0.8 | Issamade ASINGA | 29 Dec 2004 | SUR | Caribbean Black |
| 9.9 | 0.4 | Nickel ASHMEADE | 07 Apr 1990 | JAM | Caribbean Black |
| 9.9 | 2 | Benjamin AZAMATI | 14 Jan 1998 | GHA | West African |
| 9.9 | 1.8 | Elijah HALL | 22 Aug 1994 | USA | African-American |
| 9.9 | 1.8 | Godson Oke OGHENEBRUME | 27 May 2003 | NGR | West African |
| 9.9 | 0.9 | Cravont CHARLESTON | 02 Jan 1998 | USA | African-American |
| 9.91 | 1.2 | Dennis MITCHELL | 20 Feb 1966 | USA | African-American |
| 9.91 | 0.9 | Leonard SCOTT | 19 Jan 1980 | USA | African-American |
| 9.91 | -0.5 | Derrick ATKINS | 05 Jan 1984 | BAH | Caribbean Black |
| 9.91 | -0.2 | Daniel BAILEY | 09 Sep 1986 | ANT | Caribbean Black |
| 9.91 | 0.7 | Churandy MARTINA | 03 Jul 1984 | NED | Caribbean Black |
| 9.91 | 1.1 | James DASAOLU | 05 Sep 1987 | GBR | West African |
| 9.91 | 1.8 | Femi OGUNODE | 15 May 1991 | QAT | West African |
| 9.91 | 1 | Julian FORTE | 07 Jan 1993 | JAM | Caribbean Black |
| 9.91 | 1 | Terrence JONES | 08 Nov 2002 | BAH | Caribbean Black |
| 9.91 | 1.8 | Shaun MASWANGANYI | 01 Feb 2001 | RSA | Southern African |
| 9.91 | 1.1 | Rohan WATSON | 29 Apr 2002 | JAM | Caribbean Black |
| 9.92 | 0.3 | Andre CASON | 20 Jan 1969 | USA | African-American |
| 9.92 | 0.8 | Jon DRUMMOND | 09 Sep 1968 | USA | African-American |
| 9.92 | 0.2 | Tim MONTGOMERY | 28 Jan 1975 | USA | African-American |
| 9.92 | -0.2 | Seun OGUNKOYA | 28 Dec 1977 | NGR | West African |
| 9.92 | 1 | Tim HARDEN | 27 Jan 1974 | USA | African-American |
| 9.92 | 2 | Christophe LEMAITRE | 11 Jun 1990 | FRA | White |
| 9.92 | -0.8 | Kemar BAILEY-COLE | 10 Jan 1992 | JAM | Caribbean Black |
| 9.92 | 0.9 | Jak Ali HARVEY | 04 May 1989 | TUR | Caribbean Black |
| 9.92 | 1.4 | Udodi Chudi ONWUZURIKE | 29 Jan 2003 | NGR | West African |
| 9.93 | 1.4 | Calvin SMITH | 08 Jan 1961 | USA | African-American |
| 9.93 | -0.6 | Michael MARSH | 04 Aug 1967 | USA | African-American |
| 9.93 | 1.8 | Patrick JOHNSON | 26 Sep 1972 | AUS | Australian Aboriginal-Irish |
| 9.93 | 1.1 | Ivory WILLIAMS | 02 May 1985 | USA | African-American |
| 9.93 | 1.8 | Kemarley BROWN | 20 Jul 1992 | JAM | Caribbean Black |
| 9.93 | 1.7 | Clayton VAUGHN | 15 May 1992 | USA | African-American |
| 9.93 | 1.9 | Kim COLLINS | 05 Apr 1976 | SKN | Caribbean Black |
| 9.93 | 0.8 | Cameron BURRELL | 11 Sep 1994 | USA | African-American |
| 9.93 | 1.6 | Christopher BELCHER | 29 Jan 1994 | USA | African-American |
| 9.93 | 0.8 | Cravon GILLESPIE | 31 Jul 1996 | USA | African-American |
| 9.93 | 1.9 | Arthur CISSÉ | 29 Dec 1996 | CIV | West African |
| 9.93 | -1.2 | Reece PRESCOD | 29 Feb 1996 | GBR | Caribbean Black? |
| 9.93 | 0.1 | Eugene AMO-DADZIE | 22 Jun 1992 | GBR | West African |
| 9.94 | 0.2 | Davidson EZINWA | 22 Nov 1971 | NGR | West African |
| 9.94 | -0.2 | Bernard WILLIAMS | 19 Jan 1978 | USA | African-American |
| 9.94 | 1.7 | Diondre BATSON | 13 Jul 1992 | USA | African-American |
| 9.94 | 1.4 | Andrew FISHER | 15 Dec 1991 | JAM | Caribbean Black |
| 9.94 | 1 | Ameer WEBB | 19 Mar 1991 | USA | African-American |
| 9.94 | 0.9 | Wayde VAN NIEKERK | 15 Jul 1992 | RSA | Cape Coloured |
| 9.94 | 1.6 | Jo’Vaughn MARTIN | USA | African-American | |
| 9.94 | 1.3 | Gift LEOTLELA | 12 May 1998 | RSA | Southern African |
| 9.94 | 0.8 | Joseph Paul AMOAH | 12 Jan 1997 | GHA | West African |
Among the top 100 all-time 100-meter men (9.94 or lower), there is one East Asian (Su Bingtian), one white (Frenchman Christophe LeMaitre), one half Australian Aborigine and half Irishman (Patrick Johnson), and one Cape Coloured (Wayde Van Niekerk). I believe there are two half-blacks (Jacobs and Jimmy Vicault, although I could be understating this number).
 |
| Guess the Nilotic marathoner vs. the Bantu 100m man |
There is now one East African top man in the 100m, Ferdinand Omanyala of Kenya. Yet, note that he is of the Bantu tribe, which is quite distinct from the Nilotic Luo tribe of former president Obama. Omanyala is much wider and more muscular than the Kenyan Nilotic Kalenjin distance runners, such as marathon great Eliud Kipchoge.
The authors make a big deal about how the fact that there are now five Southern Africans (and one Southwest African, 1990s star Frankie Fredericks of Namibia) somehow disproves the “racialist” perspective that West Africans are better at sprinting and East Africans at distance running, but the theory was always that sub-Saharans have overall advantages in running speed that are partly specialized by sprint vs. distance.
43 of the top 100m men are African-American, 32 are ethnically Caribbean, and 11 of the top 100 are ethnically recent West Africans.
The authors emphasize that West Africans are not as abundant as the theory that West Africa is the motherlode of sprint speed would suggest, but there are obvious nurture differences: life expectancy in Nigeria is only 54 years compared to 74 years in Jamaica.
So, I dunno. It looks like, as of 2024, that both Nature and Nurture play significant roles in running performance. But then I’m a bad person, so I would say that, wouldn’t I?
