While the Derb's most astounding statistic of our age
—that the US has admitted more Muslims for settlement in the 15 years after 9/11 than it did in the 15 years prior—is an observation well taken, the most rapid increase in settlements have come not from MENA countries
but from sub-Saharan Africa
From 1990 to 2017
, the number of people living in the US who were born in sub-Saharan Africa has increased 533%*
. The number of foreign-born people living in the US who were born outside of sub-Saharan Africa has increased 110% over that same period of time:
If that rate of settlement growth continues—and the world's most important graph
strongly suggests that if we do nothing it will not merely continue but will accelerate—we'll be looking at 10 million foreign-born sub-Saharan Africans living in the US another generation down the road. With TFRs of around 5 children per woman
, that's somewhere in the ballpark of 60 million more sub-Saharan Africans living in the US by mid-century than live here now.
For three centuries the US and its antecedent has struggled to find a way for whites and blacks to live together if not in harmony than at least civilly. In three decades we're set to more than double the size of the country's black population, a population we've been unable to functionally integrate in 300 years. Under a president Kamala Harris
, a trebling of the size might be closer to the truth.
The storm clouds
of a Malthusian catastrophe
are brewing on the dark continent
. It'll be swell if the rains can somehow be blessed
there. It is imperative that they not be blessed here.
As a great thinker is fond of saying
, this will not end well.
* For some countries, Pew reports the population estimates as "less than X". In these cases, half the "less than" figure is used. For example, Lesotho shows "less than 1,000" migrants in both 1990 and 2017, so 500 is the figure used in both years.Crossposted from Audacious Epigone