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A Reader Says Rand Paul's Combination Of Libertarianism And Pandering Will Fail In 2016
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September 12, 2014, 07:42 PM
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Re: Rand Paul Sinking—But Is It Due to Foreign Policy Flip-flops or Racial Pandering?

From: An Analytical Anonymous Reader Email Him

Evidence continues to mount that the Rand Paul approach of libertarianism and pandering will not result in a 2016 victory, rather only through GAP (Generic American Party)populism can the GOP win.

Table 3: Vote for Romney in 2012 by age and political orientation

AIA2014082802-table3[1]

The UVA Center for Politics (Larry Sabato) reports [Table 3 from the Sabato article, above] that only in the "Populist" and "Conservative" categories did Romney do any better amongst the "youth vote" than among the over-30s.

And the "youth vote" attitude is affected by nonwhite proportion of the 18-29 block, which Rand favors enlarging through immigration and re-enfranchising felons.

The libertarian philosophy of limited government holds very little appeal to nonwhite voters in general, and it holds even less appeal to younger nonwhite voters. Only 4% of nonwhite voters under the age of 30 were classified as libertarians compared with 23% of white voters under the age of 30. In contrast, 69% of younger nonwhite voters were classified as consistent or moderate liberals compared with 49% of younger white voters. These results suggest that the limited appeal of libertarian ideas to younger voters is likely to diminish further over time as the nonwhite share of this age group continues to grow. False Hope: Why Libertarians Won’t Help Republicans Win the Youth Vote

Alan I. Abramowitz, Senior Columnist, Sabato's Crystal Ball August 28th, 2014