Trumpeffect
National Data | March Jobs—Trump Effect OVER, Displacement/Foreign-Born Population Surge To New Highs. Legislation Needed NOW.
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April 09, 2018, 04:48 PM
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The March job data, reported Friday April 6, was disappointing for conventional Main Stream Media economic commentators—but disastrous for immigration patriot economic commentators i.e. basically us here at VDARE.com. For the third straight month, immigrant displacement of American workers and the immigrant workforce both surged, more than reversing that gains that appeared to be evident by the end of 2017— what we optimistically saw as a “Trump Effect.” Simultaneously, it is now clear that illegal immigration is also surging again. The one bright spot: this utterly discredits lying MSM attempts to downplay illegal immigration in the face of backlash to the Pueblos Sin Fronteras caravan and President Trump’s fierce reaction. Nevertheless, it is now clear that only vastly stronger executive action, and above all legislation, can stem the Historic American Nation’s dispossession via non-traditional immigration.

The widely-cited survey of business payrolls reported a job gain of 103,000 in March, well below the consensus estimate (185,000) and a fraction of February’s 300,000+ gain. The “other” employment survey, of households rather than businesses, was even more subdued—and, when you dig into it, downright depressing. It found a 37,000 job reduction for the month, which is no big deal coming after the unsustainable 785,000 job spike in February. (Think reversion to the mean.) But the bad news: For the second consecutive month foreign-born workers gained jobs while native-born Americans lost them. (See below.)

The Household Survey also tracks nativity, and for the third month running shows a continuing spike in the foreign-born working age population (including illegals):

In March 2018 there were 2.154 million more working-age immigrants than in March 2017. This comes on the heels of 1.246 million and 1.818 million increases, year-over-year, in January and February, respectively.

IMMIGRANT WORKFORCE POPULATION

Change in foreign-born population from the same month the prior year.

(Age 16 or older; in 1,000s.)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

By contrast, the last five months of 2017 saw year-over-year declines from the same month in 2016.

These are net figures. Over a 12-month period an average of perhaps 300,000 immigrants die and an equal number leave the U.S. voluntarily. So that 2.154 million net rise in foreign-born population since last March means that about 2.8 million foreign-born individuals may have actually settled in the country over that period. (This excludes tourists and other short-term entrants.) (See our coverage of the February Jobs report. )

In percentage terms, the immigrant working-age population grew 5.23% over the past year. If this growth rate persists, it portends a doubling within 14 years. By contrast, the native-born American population rose 0.25% over past 12 months—a rate that will require 288 years for a doubling. If both rates persist that long, the term “native born” will refer to a minuscule fraction of the U.S. population.

As I mentioned above, the latest job numbers also show that displacement of native-born Americans by their foreign-born competitors has now reached a record level. In March:

  • Immigrant employment rose by 97,000—up by 0.36%
  • Native-born American employment fell by 134,000—down by 0.10%
  • The immigrant employment index, set to 100.0 in January 2009, rose from 125.8 to 126.3.
  • The native-born American employment index fell from 106.1 to 106.0.
  • The New VDARE American Worker Displacement Index (NVDAWDI), our term for the ratio of immigrant to native-born employment growth indexes, rose from 5to a record 119.2(100X (126.3/106.0)

Since taking office in January 2017, President Trump has presided over a labor market in which immigrants have gained 1.75 million jobs, a gain of 5.2%, while native-born Americans have gained 1.8 million jobs—a rise of only 1.4%.

As far as the labor market is concerned, “America First” has not translated to Americans First.

The recent spike in American worker displacement is placed in a longer historical context in VDARE.com’s New American Worker Displacement Index (NVDAWDI):

OBAMA'S LEGACY: IMMIGRANT VS.

AMERICAN EMPLOYMENT GROWTH

January 2009 though March 2018

(Monthly employment index: Jan. 2009=100)

*VDARE.COM AMERICAN WORKER DISPLACEMENT INDEX
Source: BLS Household Employment Survey; VDARE.com

Trump has not yet come close to repairing the damage done by eight years of Obama. Native-born American workers lost ground to their foreign-born competitors throughout the Obama years, and, shown above, this trend accelerated significantly in the months leading up to the election.

Another way of looking at American worker displacement: the immigrant share of total U.S. employment:

IMMIGRANT WORKFORCE POPULATION

Change in foreign-born population from the same month the prior year.

(Age 16 or older; in 1,000s, not seasonally adjusted)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

The immigrant share rose steadily, albeit erratically, throughout the Obama years. It fell sharply in the months after the 2016 election, roared back to Obama-era levels in the spring, and drifted downward in the last months of 2017.

Then it rebounded. In March the immigrant share of U.S. employment was 17.61%—larger than any month for which we have data. (The series starts in January 2008.)

A detailed snapshot of American worker displacement over the past year is available in the Employment Status of the Civilian Population by Nativity table published in the monthly BLS Report.

Employment Status by Nativity, March 2017- March 2018
(numbers in 1000s; not seasonally adjusted)
  Mar-17 Mar-18 Change % Change
  Foreign born, 16 years and older
Civilian population 41,204 43,358 2,154 5.23%
Civilian labor force 27,062 28,441 1,379 5.10%
Participation rate (%) 65.7 65.6 -0.1 pts. -0.15%
Employed 25,857 27,280 1,423 5.50%
Employment/population % 62.8 62.9 0.1 pts. 0.16%
Unemployed 1,205 1,161 -44 -3.65%
Unemployment rate (%) 4.5 4.1 -0.4 pts. -8.89%
Not in labor force 14,142 14,918 776 5.49%
  Native born, 16 years and older
Civilian population 213,210 213,739 529 0.25%
Civilian labor force 132,850 133,107 257 0.19%
Participation rate (%) 62.3 62.3 0.0 pts.. 0.00%
Employed 126,771 127,597 826 0.65%
Employment/population % 59.5 59.7 0.2 0.34%
Unemployed 6,079 5,510 -569 -9.36%
Unemployment rate (%) 4.6 4.1 -0.5 pts. -10.87%
Not in labor force 80,360 80,632 272 0.34%
Source: BLS, The Employment Situation-March 2018, Table A-7, April 6, 2018.
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Over the past 12 months (March 2017 to March 2018):

  • The immigrant labor force (employed plus looking for work) rose by 1.4 million, or 5.1%; the native-born labor force grew by 297,000, up by 0.19%. BIG ADVANTAGE IMMIGRANTS
  • Immigrant employment grew nearly 8-times faster than native-born American employment: 5.5% vs. 0.65%. ADVANTAGE IMMIGRANTS
  • The number of unemployed native-born Americans fell by 569,000—a 9.4% drop; immigrant employment fell by 44,000—a 3.7% reduction. ADVANTAGE NATIVES-BORN AMERICANS.
  • Identical unemployment rates—at 4.1% - for both immigrants and native-born are reported for March 2018. However the native rate dropped by a slightly larger percent from March 2017. SLIGHT ADVANTAGE NATIVE-BORN AMERICANS.
  • The labor-force participation rate (LPR), a sign of worker confidence and mobility, fell 0.1 points for immigrants and was unchanged for native-born Americans. At 65.6%, however, the immigrant LPR was considerably above the native-born American rate (62.3%.) ADVANTAGE IMMIGRANTS

Why this sudden whiplash? It now seems clear that an unrecognized illegal alien surge is underway. Border Patrol statistics indicate a sharp increase in apprehensions, year over year, along the South West in both February and March.

U.S. BORDER PATROL APPREHENSIONS

Change in S.W. border patrol apprehensions from the same month the prior year.

Source: U.S. Border Patrol

What strikes my eye: the amazing similarity between the pre- and post- 2016 election trends for BP apprehensions and our foreign-born working-age population figures. Both rise (year-over-year) in the months leading up to November 2016, decline through most of 2017, before spiking in February and March of this year.

In other words, illegal immigration has a remarkably rapid impact on the foreign-born workforce population—and labor force competition faced by American workers.

This seems to confirm that there was a strong “Trump effect” that both deterred border crossers and also sent illegals back over the border in 2017. But that now seems to have evaporated.

Which leaves us with the only answer: dramatically enhanced enforcement—perhaps including the prosecution of Democratic politicians who enable Sanctuary Cities and States—and, above all, legislation to slash legal immigration, preferably an immigration moratorium.

Edwin S. Rubenstein (email him) is President of ESR Research Economic Consultants.