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Romney Gaining Edge, White Share Up To (At Least) 54%-56%
Thumb peterbrimelow
October 18, 2012, 07:39 PM
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It looks like Gallup is winning the poll battle—other tracking polls seem to be moving in its direction and now show Romney gaining/ ahead. The RealClear Politics Average puts his lead (Oct. 18) at just 1 percent. Small movements in Romney`s share of the white vote seem to be key.

  • Gallup just reported (Oct. 18) that Romney is now even further ahead among likely voters, 52-45. That`s a seven point lead, seriously statistically significant.

Gallup`s confusing website doesn`t always show the racial breakdown, but on Tuesday, when Gallup showed Romney just four points ahead, his white share was a very strong (for him) 61%. Presumably this trend is continuing.

Gallup is has a reputation as a liberal group, which makes its Romney results more impressive. Indeed, Gallup doesn`t seem particularly happy: it headed its press release today with the exciting news that "3.4% of US adults identify as lesbian, gay, bisexual, or transgender."

  • IBD/TIPP reported today (Oct. 18) that Romney still trails Obama 45.7-46.2, which is closer by a point since yesterday.

As usual with the Main Stream Media, the IBD commentary goes on about independents, women and 18-44 year olds. The simpler explanation: Romney`s white share increased by a point, to 54%.

  • Rasmussen Reports now shows Romney leading Obama 49-47.

Rasmussen`s Premium Platinum subscribers learn that Romney`s white share is stable, at 56%.

Remember, the Congressional GOP got 60% in 2010. (More white share comparisons here—scroll down).

Rasmussen also illustrates Romney`s continuing problem with the white working class, especially in the North. The service reported today that Romney still trails Obama 49-48 in Ohio. Platinum subscribers can see that Romney is getting only 53% of the Ohio white vote.

Conversely, Rasmussen also reported today that Romney`s lead in North Carolina has widened, to 52-46. Romney`s white share in North Carolina: 64%.