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Romney Lead Evaporates, White Share Down To 55% (Rasmussen); 56% (POLITICO/GWU)
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October 08, 2012, 07:18 PM
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Rasmussen`s three-day tracking poll for Monday October 8 shows Romney`s post-debate lead over Obama evaporating: both are now even 48-48. Rasmussen`s Platinum Members [subscribe here] have access to the cross tabs, which reveal that Romney`s share of the white vote is down a point since Saturday, at 55%. (Obama gets just 40% of whites—Rasmussen reports 2% of whites voting for "Other" and 3% "Not Sure."

The POLITICO/ George Washington University poll today showed Romney narrowly behind Obama 48-49. You really have to dig to get the white share, buried beneath a ton of extraneous detail, but it`s Romney 56%, Obama 41%. (p. 93. The same page reveals that even white women favor Romney, 52-45).

Gallup`s most recent tracking poll, also released today, shows Romney trailing Obama 46-49. This is a seven-day average and still includes three pre-debate days. Looking only at the post-debate polling, Romney and Obama are tied. Gallup doesn`t break out the poll by race.

This confirms the pattern VDARE.com has observed since Romney got the nomination: his white share is firmly stuck in the losing McCain 2008 range (also 55%). For comparison (scroll down), Bush II got 58% in 2004.

To be fair, the problem is not simply Romney`s, but that of the post-Reagan Republican Party. No recent GOP Presidential candidate has come close to Reagan`s 64% white share in 1988, far less Nixon`s 67% (against the distinctly Obama-like George McGovern) in 1972.

It is increasingly clear that the Congressional GOP`s 60% share in 2010 was a Tea Party triumph, which the Washington DC-based GOP Establishment has been unable or unwilling to build upon.