A few days ago, I wrote “Poll: Clinton’s lead over Trump slipping since Orlando”
and now the Monmouth University poll shows the same thing: in a head-to-head contest, Clinton leads Trump by 7 percentage points
, as opposed to 10 percentage points in Monmouth's last head-to-head national survey
, back in late March.
Monmouth does not draw attention to this tightening in its press release, and the MSM apparently hasn't noticed: National poll: Clinton leads Trump by 7
, by Nick Gass, POLITICO.com
, June 20, 2016.
As before, Trump's problem is not enraged minorities, but a relative weakness among whites, whom he carries 49%-38% (the balance is other candidates/ undecided/ refuse). That's a significant margin, but quite a bit less than the 60% white share achieved by the congressional GOP in the Tea Party year of 2010
and in 2014
. It suggests to me, but not apparently to the MSM or Monmouth, that there's precedent to suppose he can do it.