When I saw the headline National poll: Clinton lead narrows (
by Louis Nelson, POLITICO
, June 21, 2016), I assumed that someone
in the MSM had finally noticed that, in the face of all the MSM hype, Trump has been closing in on Clinton in the post-Orlando polls (as I've discussed here
But in fact, the underlying article (and the headline when you click through) is about the (certainly interesting) fact that in the latest CNN/ORC poll,
Clinton's lead over Trump narrows
to just 4 percentage points, 42-38, in a four-way race that includes Libertarian Gary Johnson (9 percent) and Green Party candidate Jill Stein (7 percent). The margin of error is plus or minus 3 per cent, so this is definitely bad news for the Clinton camp.
However, POLITICO's Nelson does not report that, in a head-to-head race, Clinton leads Trump by just 5 percent
—and that this is sharply down from 13 percent
in the last head-to-head CNN/ORC poll released in May.
Clinton gets just 38% of whites
(who until 1965
would have been called "Americans") vs. 51% for Trump. Since the GOP got 60% of the white vote in 2010
, this suggests Trump has a relatively straightforward path to victory.
(Curiously, the CNN/ORC poll says
that 34% of Americans are unfavorable to Melania Trump (pictured above right) vs. 28% who are favorable. I just don't believe this.)