"The smart money in Washington and around the country was favoring the Democrats' odds of winning back at least one chamber of Congress. But just a week later, and a lot of Democrats don't like the taste of the Kool-Aid they've been drinking.... [R]ealism has finally entered the equation when it comes to 2006, mostly based on one result — the Calif.-50 special election. The race told us two things: There's no extra excitement in the Democratic base, as there was no increase in the Democratic vote... [and] immigration is an issue powerful enough to rally the Republican base. These lessons run counter to the conventional wisdom from just two weeks ago that presumed Democrats were more fired up about the 2006 elections than Republicans, who supposedly were having their own problems firing up their base" — Hotline Editor Chuck Todd, writing at NationalJournal.com.

Now if we could just convince the Republican leadership of that.