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National Data | Chart | Will War Bring 2.5 million Iraqi "Refugees"?
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May 25, 2004, 05:00 AM
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Table 1

 

Refugee Applications Approved by

Top 10 Nationalities, Fiscal Year 2002

 

Refugees Approved

 

 

For Admission

Approval Rate(a)

Bosnia

3,784

75.1%

Cuba

2,534

39.5%

Iran

2,000

73.3%

Afghanistan

1,635

76.5%

Ukraine

1,618

40.9%

Sudan

1,054

28.6%

Liberia

982

7.4%

Vietnam

774

32.8%

Russia

731

41.8%

Iraq

592

37.4%

All nationalities

18,652

20.8%

 

 

 

a. Percent of applications for refugee status approved.

Note:Refugees are approved for admission to the U.S. by immigration officers overseas.

Source: Office of Homeland Security, Immigration Statistics 2002, Table E.

 

Table 2

Refugees Granted Permanent Resident Status

By Selected Region and Country of Birth , 1946-2002

 

All

 

Fiscal Years

Countries

Europe

Vietnam

Cuba

Somalia

Bosnia (a)

Iraq

Afghanistan

1946-1950

213,347

211,983

-

3

NA

9,816

-

-

1951-1960

492,371

456,146

2

6

NA

44,755

130

1

1961-1970

212,843

55,235

7

131,557

NA

18,299

119

-

1971-1980

539,447

71,858

150,266

251,514

6

11,297

6,851

542

1981-1990

1,013,620

155,512

324,453

113,367

70

324

7,540

22,946

1991-2000

1,021,266

426,565

206,857

144,612

16,837

37,591

22,557

9,725

2001

108,506

55,825

10,351

22,687

2,484

23,303

3,060

257

2002

126,084

62,911

6,926

24,893

4,084

25,033

3,434

1,044

Total, 1946-2002

3,727,484

1,496,035

698,862

688,639

23,481

170,418

43,691

34,515

 

Percent of All Refugees:

1946-1950

100.0%

99.4%

0.0%

0.0%

NA

4.6%

0.0%

0.0%

1951-1960

100.0%

92.6%

0.0%

0.0%

NA

9.1%

0.0%

0.0%

1961-1970

100.0%

26.0%

0.0%

61.8%

NA

8.6%

0.1%

0.0%

1971-1980

100.0%

13.3%

27.9%

46.6%

0.0%

2.1%

1.3%

0.1%

1981-1990

100.0%

15.3%

32.0%

11.2%

0.0%

0.0%

0.7%

2.3%

1991-2000

100.0%

41.8%

20.3%

14.2%

1.6%

3.7%

2.2%

1.0%

2001

100.0%

51.4%

9.5%

20.9%

2.3%

21.5%

2.8%

0.2%

2002

100.0%

49.9%

5.5%

19.7%

3.2%

19.9%

2.7%

0.8%

Total, 1946-2002

100.0%

40.1%

18.7%

18.5%

0.6%

4.6%

1.2%

0.9%

NA Not available.

 

a. Yugoslavia prior to 1990.

 

Note: Refugees are eligible to apply for permanent residence status a year after entering the nation.

Permanent residency, or "Green Card," status confers the right to live and work in the U.S. permanently.

Source: Office of Homeland Security, 2002 Yearbook of Immigration Statistics, October 2003, Table 23.

 

 

 

Table 3

 

How Many Iraqi Refugees?

Projections Based on Historical Experience

 

 

Refugee Influx

 

Population (date)

Refugee Influx (a)

as % Population

Europe

547,403,000 (1950)

1,496,035

0.3%

Cuba

6,985,000 (1960)

688,639

9.9%

Vietnam

42,898,000 (1970)

698,862

1.6%

Bosnia

4,308,000 (1990)

85,927

2.0%

Somalia

7,163,000 (1990)

23,461

0.3%

 

 

Projected Iraqi

 

 

 

Refugee Influx

Assumptions:

Iraq

25,000,000 (2003)

75,000

European experience

Iraq

25,000,000 (2003)

2,475,000

Cuban experience

Iraq

25,000,000 (2003)

560,000

Vietnam experience

Iraq

25,000,000 (2003)

500,000

Bosnian experience

Iraq

25,000,000 (2003)

75,000

Somalian experience

 

 

a. Refugees granted permanent residence in U.S. from population date through 2002.

Source: Population: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision

World Population Database.  http://esa.un.org/unpp/

 

Edwin S. Rubenstein (email him) is President of ESR Research Economic Consultants in Indianapolis.