[See also: The Coming Defeat Of Deval Patrick And The End Of Massachusetts` Minority Rule Experiment, by Matthew Richer]

On January 19th, Massachusetts will elect a new U.S. senator to fill the seat held for nearly half a century by patriotic immigration reform`s long time, recently deceased adversary, Teddy Kennedy. [Dodd and Dorgan Aside, Senate Election Focus Should Be on Massachusetts, by Chuck Raasch, USA Today, January 6, 2010]

After Kennedy`s death, Governor Deval Patrick appointed Paul. G. Kirk, Jr. as an interim so the Democrats could cast a "yea" vote for the Senate health care bill.

Regarding Kennedy`s remarkably long term of service, I can only say that time doesn`t fly when you`re not having fun. Patriotic immigration reformers were most definitely not having fun during his ceaseless subversion of America.

The Senate contest that will pit Republican State Senator Scott Brown versus Democratic Attorney General Martha Coakley kicks off with an interesting coincidence: In 1962, Kennedy also was elected via a special election after his brother John vacated the seat on being elected president.

Before analyzing Brown`s chances, remember that he`s a Republican running in Massachusetts, where his party`s registration is a microscopic 11 percent.

But, despite obviously long odds against him becoming the first Republican Massachusetts senator since Edward W. Brooke 32 years ago, Brown has a chance—if he plays it right.

Brown`s task is to appeal to the anti-Establishment mood that helped Republicans defeat Democrats in the November gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia.

Brown, according to Philip W. Johnson, a former Massachusetts Democratic Party Chairman, is

 "...an attractive, articulate, moderate Republican who could tap into some of the unrest among voters. It would be a terrible mistake for Democrats to assume that this election is in the bag on January 19. These are not normal times. There are treacherous winds blowing and Democratic candidates have to be aware of that." [Scott Brown Wins GOP Primary, Readies for Race vs. Coakley, Michael Levenson, Boston Globe, December 8, 2009]

Translations:

• "Attractive" means Brown is a fit triathlete so confident in his appearance that he once posed nude (with his limbs strategically placed) for Cosmopolitan Magazine.

• "Articulate" is a nod to Brown`s career as a military lawyer in the Massachusetts Army National Guard where he has served for nearly three decades and holds the rank of Lt. Colonel in the Judge Advocate General`s (JAG) Corps.

• "Moderate Republican" refers to Brown`s position as an anti-big government, anti-federal stimulus and health care legislation, fiscal conservative who during his three terms as a state representative never voted for tax increases.

• "Not normal times" is a thinly disguised reference to Coakley`s standing as an unpopular staff member on the exceedingly disliked Deval Patrick`s gubernatorial team.

Of most importance to VDARE.COM is how the two candidates stack up on immigration. While Massachusetts isn`t a border state, its foreign-born population is more than 14 percent.

That total brings with it enough immigration-related problems like crime to make it an issue in Brown`s campaign.

• MS-13, also known Mara Salvatrucha, has a well established presence in East Boston and has been linked to al-Qaeda terrorist networks. [Off-Duty Boston Firefighter Stabbed Outside Station, by Laurel J. Sweet, Boston Herald, December 3, 2007]

• Education has been adversely effected by excessive immigration. According to a Federation for American Immigration Reform report, in 2004 Massachusetts ranked twelfth in the U.S. for numbers of illegal alien students and U.S.-born children of illegal aliens enrolled in K-12 schools. That cost Massachusetts taxpayers $494.5 million—back in 2004, remember.

The same FAIR report referenced above confirmed that Brown`s stance to keep illegal aliens from discounted college tuition would save Massachusetts between $7.7 and $10 million.

With Massachusetts facing a $1 billion budget deficit, any fiscal conservative worth his salt would draw the cost correlation between educating illegal aliens and the revenue shortfall. [State Deficit May Hit $1 Billion Again, by Frank Phillips, Boston Globe, March 12, 2009]

As pointed out by our Matthew Richer, Brown (unlike Coakley) has posted his immigration positions on his website. Included are his opposition to amnesty, driver`s licenses and instate tuition for aliens and their children.

Brown`s stances on driver`s licenses and tuition have special significance because Patrick has wavered on both.

Publicly, the governor has indicated support for the "New Americans Agenda," Massachusetts` so called "comprehensive blueprint for integrating immigrants," but also stalled it fearing voter retribution by referring it to his Cabinet for an "action plan" [Tuition, Driver`s Licenses Urged for Illegal Aliens, by Maria Sacchetti, Boston Globe, November 17, 2009]

Democrat Senate hopeful Coakley, in contrast to Brown, supports a "path to citizenship" via "comprehensive immigration reform" a.k.a. amnesty.

Said Coakley, sounding frighteningly like Teddy:

 "We need a policy that makes sense for 12 million people who are stuck in a purgatorial status quo. It doesn`t do us any good to do nothing." [Coakley Says She Would Support Immigration Reform, by Julia Spitz, MetroWest Daily News, November 25, 2009]

Brown has linked himself with President John F. Kennedy by calling for tax cuts to stimulate the economy. A more important Kennedy comparison for Brown: that he is not and never will be the Senator that he`s seeking to replace—the legislator whose votes increased levels of legal and illegal immigration while destroying the America that we all grew up in and love.

With Massachusetts unemployment at nearly 9 percent, Brown has nothing to lose by pointing out that Kennedy`s pro-immigration votes put hundreds of thousands of Americans out of their middle class jobs as their occupations vanished either because of illegal alien labor, foreign workers flooding American markets or job outsourcing.

Kennedy voted for increases in every Congressional bill that would create or increase more non-immigrant H-1B visas.

In addition to immigration, Brown`s biggest selling point, even in predominantly Democratic Massachusetts, is the Senate math: 58 Democrats, 40 Republicans and two Independents. Since the Independents, Bernie Saunders and Joe Lieberman, caucus with the Democrats, the tally is effectively 60-40.

Brown`s election would make it 57-41-2 or adjusting for the Independents, 59-41

A Rasmussen poll conducted last week firm placed Coakley ahead of Brown by 50 percent to 41 percent—not bad for Brown in the state Obama carried by 26 points.

More interesting is that 21 percent of those likely to vote in the special election have a very favorable opinion of Coakley while 22 percent have a very unfavorable view.

Brown`s numbers are strikingly better: 25 percent very favorable and 5 percent very unfavorable.

A certain momentum is building in Brown`s favor. Curt Schilling, Boston Red Sox pitching hero, recently endorsed him as did former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney and John McCain. [Curt Schilling Endorses Brown in Mass. Senate Race, by Andy Barr, Politico.com, January 4, 2010]

This has drawn predictable scorn from the Coakley camp, who dismiss Schilling as a superficial jock and Romney and McCain has political hacks.

But as far as athletes and politics go, it`s worth noting that Kentucky U.S. Senator Jim Bunning (Immigration Grade A-) didn`t suffer from his Hall of Fame career. And former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley almost rode his basketball prowess to the White House.

Bay State residents do love their Red Sox, so Coakley should be concerned about Brown`s publicity—and even more worried about Barack Obama`s conspicuous absence from her campaign.

Although Massachusetts has elected wild-eyed liberals like Kennedy (Teddy and Patrick), John Kerry,    Barney Frank, to Congress, since 1990 it has also elected Republican Governors William Weld and Paul Cellucci as well as Mitt Romney.

Brown`s gender may work in favor of Brown, too. Only four women have held statewide offices in Massachusetts, none of them governor or senator.

A cold post-New Jersey and Virginia wind continues to blow over the Democrats. This week, Connecticut and North Dakota Senators Christopher Dodd, Byron Dorgan and Colorado Governor Bill Ritter announced their retirements.

Actually, that`s not quite right: they`re leaving voluntarily before being voted out, possibly in primary challenges. [Abrupt Democratic Retirements Show Tough Landscape, by Liz Sidoti, Associated Press, January 6, 2009]

The Senate doesn`t reconvene until January 19th, the day of the special election. And then its only official business will be a pro forma session.

If Brown can pull off a long shot win, he`ll give Republicans the one crucial vote they need to kill the Democrats` agenda that includes Obamacare—and possibly despite the mid-year election threats it poses, "comprehensive immigration reform".

Joe Guzzardi [email him] is a California native who recently fled the state because of over-immigration, over-population and a rapidly deteriorating quality of life. He has moved to Pittsburgh, PA where the air is clean and the growth rate stable. A long-time instructor in English at the Lodi Adult School, Guzzardi has been writing a weekly column since 1988. It currently appears in the Lodi News-Sentinel.