|
March 24, 2005
Table 1:
|
Social Security's Immigration Scenarios
|
|
|
Annual Net Immigration |
|
Calendar Year |
Total |
Legal |
Illegal |
|
Historical Data |
|
2000 |
1,077,579 |
677,579 |
400,000 |
|
2001 |
1,198,126 |
798,126 |
400,000 |
|
2002 |
1,197,801 |
797,801 |
400,000 |
|
2003 |
962,500 |
562,500 |
400,000 |
|
Intermediate Cost (Normal Immigration) Estimates |
|
2005 |
1,150,000 |
750,000 |
400,000 |
|
2010 |
1,025,000 |
625,000 |
400,000 |
|
2025-2080 (average) |
900,000 |
600,000 |
300,000 |
|
Low
Cost (High Immigration) Estimates |
|
2005 |
1,475,000 |
925,000 |
550,000 |
|
2010 |
1,425,000 |
875,000 |
550,000 |
|
2025-2080 (average) |
1,300,000 |
850,000 |
450,000 |
|
High Cost (Low Immigration) Estimates |
|
2005 |
850,000 |
600,000 |
250,000 |
|
2010 |
722,500 |
472,500 |
250,000 |
|
2025-2080 (average) |
672,500 |
472,500 |
200,000 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Source:
Social Security Board of Trustees, 2004
Annual Report, Table V.A1. |
|
|
Table 2:
|
Social Security's Financial Projections
|
|
Under Different Immigration Levels |
|
(As a percent of
taxable payroll; 75-year period 2004-2078) |
|
Net Immigration |
Trust Fund |
Trust Fund |
Trust Fund |
Year of |
|
per
Year |
Income |
Costs |
Deficit |
Fund Exhaustion |
|
672,500 |
13.87% |
15.95% |
-2.08% |
2040 |
|
900,000 |
13.84% |
15.73% |
-1.89% |
2042 |
|
1,300,000 |
13.80% |
15.43% |
-1.63% |
2044 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Source: Social Securty Board of Trustees,
2004 Annual Report, Table VI.D3 |
|
|
|
|
Edwin S. Rubenstein (email
him) is President of
ESR Research Economic Consultants in Indianapolis. |
|
