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Romney Gaining Edge, White Share Up To (At Least) 54%-56%
It looks like Gallup is winning the poll battle—other tracking polls seem to be moving in its direction and now show Romney gaining/ ahead. The RealClear Politics Average puts his lead (Oct. 18) at just 1 percent. Small movements in Romney's share of the white vote seem to be key.
- Gallup just reported (Oct. 18) that Romney is now even further ahead among likely voters, 52-45. That's a seven point lead, seriously statistically significant.
Gallup's confusing website doesn't always show the racial breakdown, but on Tuesday, when Gallup showed Romney just four points ahead, his white share was a very strong (for him) 61%. Presumably this trend is continuing.
Gallup is has a reputation as a liberal group, which makes its Romney results more impressive. Indeed, Gallup doesn't seem particularly happy: it headed its press release today with the exciting news that "3.4% of US adults identify as lesbian, gay, bisexual, or transgender."
- IBD/TIPP reported today (Oct. 18) that Romney still trails Obama 45.7-46.2, which is closer by a point since yesterday.
As usual with the Main Stream Media, the IBD commentary goes on about independents, women and 18-44 year olds. The simpler explanation: Romney's white share increased by a point, to 54%.
- Rasmussen Reports now shows Romney leading Obama 49-47.
Rasmussen's Premium Platinum subscribers learn that Romney's white share is stable, at 56%.
Remember, the Congressional GOP got 60% in 2010. (More white share comparisons here—scroll down).
Rasmussen also illustrates Romney's continuing problem with the white working class, especially in the North. The service reported today that Romney still trails Obama 49-48 in Ohio. Platinum subscribers can see that Romney is getting only 53% of the Ohio white vote.
Conversely, Rasmussen also reported today that Romney's lead in North Carolina has widened, to 52-46. Romney's white share in North Carolina: 64%.