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Oct. 28: Romney Ripple Or GOP Glacier? Romney Stalls Within Margin Of Error Again, White Share Below 60%
Not so much a Romney Ripple, maybe a GOP glacier: Sunday's polls show no further progress, maybe a little melting, but still generally ahead although within the margin of error. Romney's white share is similarly stalled, now generally slightly below the 60% achieved by Congressional GOP candidates in 2010. (More comparisons here—scroll down). It's a pathetic performance, but it might be enough.
- Rasmussen Reports this morning (Oct. 28) shows Romney's lead over Obama down by one point, to 50-47.
This is the SIXTH consecutive day Romney has been at the 50% level, for a three or four point lead.
Rasmussen Report's Premium Platinum subscribers show Romney's white share unchanged at 59%, for an unchanged 21-point lead over Obama.
- Gallup (Oct 28) shows Romney ahead of Obama 50-46, down a point since yesterday.
Gallup obdurately continues to suppress its racial breakdown. On Oct. 16, Romney's white share was 61%, for a 22 point lead over Obama. That translated into a four-point lead overall. Presumably it is still in this range.
- ABC News/Washington Post (Oct. 28) shows Romney ahead of Obama 49-48, the same as Friday night. The poll describes the race as a dead heat.
As usual, the Washington Post does not make available the racial breakdown. But ABC hyperlinks to a version of the underlying data sheet that includes the full commentary by pollster Gary Langer. He reports Romney's white share down two points since yesterday to 58%, for a nineteen-point lead among whites over Obama.
- IBD/TIPP (Oct. 28) has long been the outlier in reporting an Obama lead, but today it reports Romney is trailing Obama only 44.1-45.4, which it describes as a statistical dead heat.
IBD/TIPP shows Romney's white share down a point, to 53%—in line with this poll's recent consistently low reading. But Romney's lead over Obama among whites has increased slightly, albeit merely to 14 points.
More evidence of Romney's missed opportunity among Northern whites: a Cincinatti Enquirer/ Ohio News Organization Poll released Oct 28 showed Romney and Obama neck-and-neck 49-49 in Ohio. Romney's white share: an undistinguished 55%, giving him a mere 12-point lead over Obama.