There`s a lot of MSM denial, but the Romney ripple is certainly still visible, albeit faint and mostly still within the margin of error. More significantly, there are more signs that Romney is getting his white share up towards 60%, the level achieved by Congressional Republicans in 2010. (More comparisons here—scroll down). A spontaneous tipping of the white vote is Romney`s best, and indeed only, hope.
- Rasmussen Reports this morning (Oct. 27) shows Romney increasing his lead over Obama by one point, to 50-46.
This is the fifth consecutive day Romney has been at the 50% level, for a three or four point lead.
Rasmussen Report`s Premium Platinum subscribers show that Romney`s white share up another point to 59%, for a 21-point lead over Obama.
- Gallup (Oct 27) shows Romney ahead of Obama 51-46, a slight increase.
Gallup has now not shown its racial breakdown since Oct. 16, when Romney`s white share was 61%, for a 22 point lead over Obama. Presumably it is still in this range.
- ABC News/Washington Post apparently did not update this evening. On Friday, it showed Romney ahead of Obama 49-48, down from a three-point lead Thursday. The poll describes the race as a dead heat.
As usual, the hyperlinked data sheet does not give the racial breakdown, but the ABC version includes the full commentary by pollster Gary Langer, in which he remarks that Romney is back up to a 60% white share, tying his best perfomance in this survey.
- IBD/TIPP (Oct. 27) continues show Romney trailing Obama as it has for some time, albeit now within the margin of error, 44.5-46.6%.
IBD/TIPP shows Romney`s share up a point, to 54%—still low. Romney`s lead over Obama among whites: 14 points.
Romney`s problem with whites outside the South is well illustrated by the USC Dornsife/ Los Angeles poll of California, released today. Romney trails Obama 39-55. The crosstabs reveal that Romney`s white share is just 49%, for mere three-point lead among whites over Obama. This is better than McCain, who actually succeeded in losing among California whites, but still appalling.
On the bright side for the GOP: this means that California is still eminently winnable. They just have to figure some way of shifting about ten percent of whites from Democrat to Republican. VDARE.com helpfully explained how here.