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Nov. 4: Race Still Deadlocked—Romney's White Share About Bush's 2004 58%, May No Longer Be Enough
The latest tracking polls show the Presidential race an actual or statistical deal heat. Of course, this is all within the margin of error—the final result could be literally anything.
Mitt Romney's share of the white vote seems to be coming in at 57-58%, at the high end of the mediocre post-Reagan range. (More white share comparisons here—scroll down). George W Bush won with a 58% white share in 2004, but the electorate shifts a point or two against the GOP every cycle because of America's ongoing immigration disaster which the GOP seems incapable of facing, so it may no longer be enough for Romney.
- POLITICO/ GWU Battleground Tracking poll (Nov. 4) shows Romney tied with Obama, 48-48.
Romney's white share: 57% (scroll down to p. 93!!!), for an eighteen-point lead over Obama.
- Rasmussen Reports this morning (Nov 4) shows Romney is still tied with Obama, 49-49—both gaining a point since yesterday.
Rasmussen Report's Premium Platinum subscribers learn that Romney's white share has edged up one point since yesterday to 57%—but so has Obama's, so the gap remains eighteen-point lead.
- ABC/ Washington Post in its final poll last night (Nov. 4) showed Romney falling back one point to a tie with Obama, 48-48.
As usual, the Washington Post report omits mentioning the white share, but the ABC report at least alludes to Romney's leading Obama among whites by 20 points. That's the same lead as yesterday, when Romney had a 58% white share. This poll never includes racial breakdowns in its published data sheet.
- NBC/Wall Street Journal, in its final poll (Nov. 4), show Romney trailing Obama 47-48.
No racial breakdown is given. We'll update if it appears in the full survey, to be released this evening.