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Nov. 2: Polls Say Romney Ripple Gone—White Share Back To Mediocre Post-Reagan Range
Both the tracking polls and VDARE.com have been hit by Hurricane Sandy, but it appears that the post-debate Romney Ripple has now vanished and (not coincidentally) Romney's white share is declining back into the mediocre post-Reagan range—fatally below the 60% acheived by Congressional GOP candidates in 2010. (More white share comparisons here—scroll down).
- Rasmussen Reports this morning (Nov 2) shows Romney's back down below 50%, and now tied with Obama. 48-48
This is the first time this poll has not shown a Romney lead since early October.
Rasmussen Report's Premium Platinum subscribers show Romney's white share down to 57%, for an eighteen-point lead over Obama.
- Gallup has not updated since October 29 due to Hurricane Sandy. At that time, it showed a 5-point Romney lead.
- ABC/ Washington Post (Nov. 1) show Romney trailing Obama, 48-49.
Romney's relatively high (60%) white share in this poll a few days ago, when he had a three-point lead. garnered very rare MSM attention. Oddly, the poll responded last night by not giving a racial breakown.
- Fox News (Oct 31) showed Romney tied with Obama, 46-46.
Romney's white share: an undistinguished 56%, for a nineteen point lead over Obama.
All this is well within the margin of error and neither camp can be feeling great on this last weekend of the campaign. But it does seem clear that Romney has failed to capitalize on what should have been a GOP white share breakthrough in 2010.